Category Archives: MARKETS: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 5th, 2020

  • Bitcoin price decrease by 1% did not affect the global market dominance of buyers.
  • Given the nature of the price movement at the 4-hour timeframe, the test of $9050 is quite possible.
  • The next target is $10,500.

Yesterday’s trading day on Bitcoin market ended with a price decrease by 1%. Sellers managed to close the daily candle below the local mark $9270 and set a new local low $9112. For the last three days, sellers have been trying to take the initiative on their own with almost equal volumes. But they the did not get a main achievement – the fixation of Bitcoin price below $9050.

Taking into account the nature of the price growth since 26 January  and comparing it with the fall attempt now, we conclude that buyers have enough strength to keep under control the critical price range $9050-9350. Therefore, the continuation of Bitcoin price growth in the market with the first target $10,500 remains our main scenario.

The daily timeframe also shows that sellers practically managed to test the lower trend line of the blue growth channel. Due to an obstacle in the form of the range $9050-9350, buyers were unable to test the upper trend line of the blue channel during the attack on 26 January. So, if the range $9050-9350 successfully kept – this test will be during the next growth.

If you analyze the situation on Bitcoin market locally, the dominance of sellers is not over yet:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 5th, 2020

Notice how easily sellers pushed the price down at the 4-hour timeframe and how the candles look and what happens when buyers try to resume growth. With the same volume, buyers are faced with limit orders for sale, which inhibit the growth of Bitcoin price. Therefore, the probability of the fall continuation and the test of $9050 remains valid.

The situation on the chart of buyers’ marginal positions looks like the situation with Bitcoin price:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 5th, 2020

Buyers stopped confidently increasing marginal positions and freeze in consolidation.

Sellers have a similar mood situation. Their marginal positions also stand in place:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 5th, 2020

According to the wave analysis, if we consider the 5-wave model of Bitcoin price growth, now the wave (iii) continues its formation:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 5th, 2020

Sellers managed to correct Fibonacci level 0.382 yesterday. Thus, we see that the price drifts between the two levels 0.382 and 0.618. Breakthrough of one of them will mean continuation of vector movement in Bitcoin market. Given the above factors, we remain in a scenario of the growth continuation.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

  • Two attempts of buyers to fix above the mark $190 were unsuccessful.
  • The critical point for buyers is $185 now.
  • The weakness of the current local fall gives buyers a chance for a new attempt to break $190 and a test of $230.

The two previous days of trading in Ethereum market were quite hot. Buyers have tried to go beyond the critical range $180-190. Currently, the best result is the test of the mark $195.81. Sellers did not allow buyers to fix above the critical range, in such a way they win the chance to counter-attack, which is now forming. On the other hand, buyers managed to pass the important price range with average volumes, without any effort, thus giving the initiative to sellers. Today, Ethereum price trading day sellers started with a 1.5% price fall. But looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the fall pattern is still sluggish and does not inspire to trust in its aggressive continuation:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

We see that in Ethereum market, local lows are updated, but lazy enough and the corrections are too deep for a successful fall trend. Therefore, it is possible that in the next two days buyers will make another attempt to fix above $190.

Also, note that the growth wave from 24 January may end with the breakthrough of the blue trend line, which passes near Ethereum price mark $185. Thus, the consolidation range narrows to $185-190. Today – tomorrow it will be clear whether buyers continue their growth with the target $230, or sellers start a counterattack with the first target $155.

Marginal buyers positions continue to increase, despite some stagnation of Ethereum price, which indicates buyers confidence in the growth continuation:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

Sellers have been trying to increase their marginal positions over the last 2 days. Although, the overall trend is to decrease:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

The mood of sellers does not give confidence and belief in the beginning of the price fall.

Considering the current wave of growth as a correction to the global wave of fall, which began on 26 June, then buyers managed to correct by 38.2%:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

Thus, the following targets for wave analysis are $210 and $230.

Already on Thursday, we will see if buyers have enough power to continue Ethereum price growth. So far, we can only follow the consolidation.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

  • The 7-day local consolidation in the range $9270-9500 continues.
  • It is important for buyers to keep the mark $9050 during breaking down of consolidation.
  • Breaking consolidation up the first target is $10,500.

The last seven days in the market, Bitcoin price has been moving in a narrow range of consolidation within $9270-9500. After a confident and sharp test of the critical price range $9050-9350, buyers are trying to fix and take control of it to continue growth. For the last two days, sellers are active and trying to lower Bitcoin price below $9050. On 2 and 3 February, sellers managed to repel buyers’ attacks and close daily candles in their favor. From February, buyers were able to test $9628. But at the 4-hour timeframe, it was noticeable that the market did not support this initiative. So, sellers began to lower the price by small steps without volumes:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

Now, we see that sellers have reached the point of local consolidation and, given the trading volumes, they are not going to break through it this time. However, as we can see in the chart, each growth starts after a false breakdown by sellers of the mark $9270. Therefore, it is logical to expect a local low update in Bitcoin market today.

If we draw the trend lines of the current growth channel, we see that at the mark $9050 passes a bottom trend line, which buyers must securely guard, to keep the trend:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

If sellers still manage to fix below $9270, then the critical point for buyers will be at $9050.

In case of breaking the current consolidation breaks up, the upper trend line passes in the range $10,300-10,500.

Marginal positions of buyers also stopped their increase:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

Buyers are reluctant to take risks during consolidation.

Sellers continue to gradually increase their marginal positions, showing a more positive and confident mood than buyers:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

According to the wave analysis in Bitcoin market globally, we see that buyers have failed to fix above the level of Fibonacci 0.5. However, locally, the trend of buyers continues. Assuming that from 3 January  began 3rd wave of growth, at the moment, this wave consists of two smaller subwaves:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 4th, 2020

The limits of local consolidation coincide with the levels of Fibonacci and now we can only wait in which direction the price will break in Bitcoin market. The main scenario of the growth continuation of Bitcoin price to the mark $10,500 as well as the final target $13,070 remain valid.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

  • Sellers failed to break through local consolidation $9280-9450.
  • Weekly candle closes with the prospect of Bitcoin price growth continuation next week to $10,300-$10,500.
  • The price reversal scenario will be considered when sellers fix the price below $9050.

Bitcoin trading week ends with no major changes. Bitcoin price continues to be in the range of $9280-9450. Sellers have tried to break the bottom limit of the consolidation range today, but they have failed to fix below $9280. Buyers immediately started a counterattack, raising the price above $9350. Thus, they denied the reversal figure like head and shoulders:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

In such a way, the 4-hour timeframe shows that buyers have launched their new attack with the minimum target of exiting from the current trading range and test of $10,500. On the daily timeframe, candle is formed with a large pin, which emphasizes the weakness of sellers and inability to control $9050-9350 now. Therefore, the new trading week on Bitcoin market promises to be a week of growth.

During this week, Bitcoin price increased by 10%. The weekly candle looks quite optimistic. The worst case scenario at the moment is a continuation of the consolidation at the range $9050-9350:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

As we can see, buyers are uncertainly broke this range at the weekly timeframe. So, the continuation of the price stop in the yellow price zone is a possible scenario.

Buyers’ mood has improved significantly this week and can be seen in the chart of marginal positions:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

Buyers after the sharp closing of the marginal positions started a new wave of their growth.

Sellers have been increasing their marginal positions for the third week now. They have practically reached the first critical point, after which on the history the histirical low has been updated:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

Because for 5 days Bitcoin price is moving in a narrow consolidation, the situation on the wave analysis has not changed at all:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

Buyers broke the upper trend line of the black channel and corrected the previous wave of fall by 50%. Next target is in the range of $10,300- $10,500. The critical point for continued growth is at $8600.

All things considered, the main growth scenario in Bitcoin market remains in place. We will start talking about an alternative scenario after fixing sellers below $9050. Have a good start of the week!

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis February 2nd, 2020

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

  • Buyers continue trying to break through $190.
  • The local growth trend will end with fixing below $180.
  • Next week’s target is the test of the mark $205 with a potential growth up to $230.

The trading week in Ethereum market was quite active. Ethereum price growth for the week is 12%. After the previous passive week, buyers were able to update the local high and test the critical price zone $180-190. We are not surprised about trading volumes this week and their increase. But the breakdown of $180-190 remains in question. If we draw the price falling channel at local lows, it looks like the upper trend line of this channel is exactly the same as the current Ethereum price  stop range:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

This fact reinforces the importance of the range $180-190.  Buyers will not be able to drastically break the downtrend without significantly increased volumes.

Buyers have been trying to pass the green price zone for 4 days now. A clear upward trend has emerged at the 4-hour timeframe:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

Sellers have repeatedly attacked the red trend line and so far, buyers have been successfully protecting it. Therefore, the probability that buyers will fix above $190 is quite high. The change of forces in Ethereum market will happen after sellers fix below the mark $180.

Another interesting fact we can see at the 4-hour timeframe. Pay attention how sellers tried to organize a counterattack with a help of large volumes on 1 February. However, unlike volumes, the candle itself does not correlate with the volumes and is completely invisible. It demonstrates the absorption of sellers’ aggression by buyers with the help of limit orders. As you can see, the next attack of sellers took place on a much smaller volumes. Immediately after feeling the weakness of sellers, buyers have sharply changed the situation in their favor today:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

Buyers’ marginal positions increased significantly this week, allaying our concerns about the likely decline of buyers’ mood:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

Sellers confidently reduce their marginal positions for the second week:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

According to the wave analysis, the growth of buyers corrected the fall wave from 24 June by 38.2% and continues to the next level of Fibonacci 50%:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 2nd, 2020

Therefore, the next potential price stop in Ethereum market is around $205, with the growth continuation up to $230.

Let’s see if buyers can confidently continue Ethereum price growth next week and whether they will find enough volume to do so.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

  • The monthly candle in Bitcoin market closed with great prospects for the growth continuation to $13,070.
  • The price continues to fix over the range $9050-9350.
  • The next potential local target is $10,500.

Trading month on Bitcoin market ended quite calmly and without provocation. During the month, Bitcoin price rose by 30%, giving buyers a high chance of the growth continuation in February. A 4-day consolidation shifted to the new month was reminiscent of the price fixing over the critical range $9050-9350.

In consolidation, buyers are trying to buy out all sellers to effectively continue their growth without unnecessary volume costs and to make sure they are able to keep the price. Yesterday’s trading day ended with the price lowering by 2%. Sellers tried to act more aggressively. But buyers did not allow any 4-hour candle to close without a large pin:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

The insufficient capacity of sellers in their counter-attacks makes it clear that the continuation of Bitcoin price growth is a matter of time. The main targets for February remain unchanged at $10,500 and $13,070.

Yesterday, marginal positions of buyers decreased and it is caused by the price decrease in Bitcoin market:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

Sellers continue to increase their marginal positions, expecting a local price reversal:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

If you analyze the long-forgotten index of fear and greed, you can see that the chart is now at a critical point. The fact is that at the mark 57 the mood of buyers has twice quickly changed from greed to fear. Therefore, after passing this mark buyers will actively buy bitcoin.

According to the wave analysis, the situation remains unchanged. Globally, the fall wave on 24 June corrected the previous wave of growth by 50%. In this case, the next wave of growth should end at no less than $13,070:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

Locally in Bitcoin market, buyers stopped near Fibonacci level 0.786, correcting the previous fall wave (Y) by 78.6%:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis February 1st, 2020

It is the last foothold for sellers to start a counterattack and keep the falling trend. However, even in this case, it will be difficult for sellers to update the local low. If they fail to fix above $9050-9350, buyers will have another attempt to continue the price growth. We wish you a good month and meet you at tomorrow’s analysis of Bitcoin price movements.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

  • Sellers’ attempt to change the situation by testing the mark $9120 failed.
  • Buyers continue to fix over $9050-9350.
  • Targets for February $10,500 and $13,070 remain unchanged.

Yesterday’s trading on Bitcoin market ended with an update of the local high and exit from the range $9050-9350. As the end of the month approaches, buyers continue to strengthen their positions in the market. Bitcoin price growth was over 2% yesterday. Considering the daily candle from 28 January, where buyers were able to raise the price by more than 5% and use the same volumes as yesterday, yesterday’s growth was weaker. Sellers still decided to turn the situation in their favor. So far, it looks local, so let’s move to the hourly timeframe:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Sellers tried to break local consolidation down by organizing a false breakdown to the mark $9120. Thus, buyers who were buying on Bitcoin market in the limits of consolidation, were forced to sell their bitcoins through stop orders. Most of buyers did not respond to the provocation. The price updated a new high on increased volumes. Now, sellers are testing the broken range. As we can see by the nature of the fall, they are not relying on a counterattack. Given these facts, the continuation of growth to $10,500 is probable scenario and a foothold for a successful February growth are laid.

Buyers have been actively increasing their marginal positions yesterday. It shows their good humor and belief in Bitcoin price growth continuation:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

It is also interesting that sellers are trying to keep up with buyers by increasing their marginal positions yesterday as well:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Looking closely at when buyers began to actively increase their positions, we begin to understand. It was during the test of $9120 and a sharp counter-attack of buyers. Sellers actively increased their marginal positions for 5 hours with updating the local high. This fact is not yet clear, as the seller’s support is now under the control of buyers and the next support is near the mark $10,500.

According to the wave analysis, we can see that the wave of growth since 18 December corrected the fall from July 2019 by 50%:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

In fact, now buyers have stopped at this mark. If the situation with Bitcoin price remains constant, then next week buyers will surely prove the definitive change of the falling trend and the beginning of a new trend of growth. Next month’s targets $10,500 and $13,070 remain unchanged.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

  • Buyers managed to test the global price zone $180-190.
  • The critical point of the local growth trend is around $177.
  • In case Ethereum price will fix above $190, the next target is $220.

Yesterday’s trading day on Ethereum market was marked by a test of a critical price zone $180-190. Buyers were able to upgrade a local high at the mark $186.75. The dayily candle closed with a small pin, but it looks pretty confident. Yesterday’s trading volumes were increased, which indicates the efforts of buyers and the belief in the growth continuation. Today, sellers need to show their reaction to the critical range test. So far, we see a rather passive decrease of Ethereum price at the 4-hour timeframe:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Sellers’ disinterest in counter-attack completely unlocks buyers. In this case, after continuation of consolidation, buyers will be able to continue building the upward trend aggressively. However, given the importance of this price zone and the previous experience of buyers in attempt to break it, we are not sure that its breakdown will happen immediately and in the short term. Last time, buyers spent more than a month and made two attempts to fix above this price range. And the result was a failure. The critical point of the current growing trend has shifted from $166 to $177.

Today, will complete its formation monthly candle, which looks quite promising. For a month, buyers were able to break sellers’ achievements during the previous two months, giving them a chance to continue their growth in Ethereum market:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

Yesterday, buyers very actively increased their marginal positions:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

However, the mood of sellers is not the same as that of buyers. Yesterday, some of the sellers actively increased their marginal positions, while some of them reduced, forming a considerable pin on the candle:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

According to the wave analysis, buyers passed the first barrier in the form of Fibonacci level 0.382. Now, Ethereum price has stopped near the second barrier:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 31st, 2020

In case of successfully fixing above the mark $190, buyers have the prospect of continued growth with a first stop $220. Let’s meet on Sunday and fix the fact of the monthly candle closure and the main and alternative scenario of the price movement in February.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

  • The temporary stop of Bitcoin price is ongoing.
  • Sellers’ attempts to counterattack are weak, passive and without volumes.
  • In case of successful closing of Bitcoin monthly candle, the targets for February are $10,500 and $13,070.

Today, the situation on Bitcoin market continues to be in favor of buyers. Bitcoin price continues to trade in local consolidation. Trading volumes in the consolidation range are decreasing with each 4-hour candle. Sellers attacks are completed by false breaks and do not present any dangers to the growth trend. Since, during the current consolidation a significant change of initiative in the market does not visible. So, the worst scenario at the moment is the continuation of protracted consolidation, after which growth should continue.

At the hourly timeframe, the current stop and trading of Bitcoin price is very similar to the previous one:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

Sellers are trying to create a local fall trend by updating local lows. However, corrections are so deep and volumes so low that the chances of such a trend are very low.

Low chances of sellers to counter-attack are noticeable on the daily timeframe as well. Yesterday, sellers actually squandered the chance, though by several percent, to increase the chance of a counter:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

Therefore, the main scenario remains to continue Bitcoin price growth to $9630. There also passes the upper trend line of the current trend.

Buyers’ mood is noticeably improving and it is reflected in their marginal positions:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

After yesterday’s sharp closure of marginal positions, sellers stopped making decisions and expecting a verdict from buyers:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

After a breakthrough of local consolidation up, sellers will continue to close their marginal positions more aggressively.

According to the wave analysis, the situation has not changed at all from the previous analysis. We want to pay attention to the monthly candle, which will finally form on Saturday:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 30th, 2020

The strong growth over the month gives a great prospect in February. The prospect to continue the fight and complete the six-month correction of growth in Bitcoin market from February 2019. Therefore, if in two days, including today sellers do not drastically change the market situation, the targets for February are $10,500 and $13,070.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

  • Buyers without correction started storming $9050-9350.
  • Sellers are not yet willing to defend themselves.
  • If buyers fix above $9350, the next their target will be $10,330.

Effectively enough, buyers closed yesterday’s candle in Bitcoin market, entering the price range $9050-9350. Buyers closed yesterday at the mark $9397 and stopped aggression to test the strength and mood of sellers. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is responding well to Bitcoin price growth.

Other coins are also growing and the phenomenon of transferring money from altcoins to Bitcoin is not observed. The volumes on the daily timeframe look harmonious, they are increasing approaching to a critical point every day. It looks like buyers are gathering speed before trying to break through and fix above $9350.

Today in Bitcoin market the relative lull and the price has stopped in consolidation:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

Bitcoin price stop is more like a check of sellers in the market for the growth continuation. Sellers are no longer trying to organize a counterattack and do not use volumes. An interesting fact is that the price stop in the range $9050-9350 has happened so far twice and exactly near the lower and upper limits of this range. It confirms the correct determination of the critical price zone.

Comparing futures chart to Bitcoin, the price differs by $150 and the volumes look much more convincing:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

Margins of buyers continue to increase and when buyers fix above $9350 they will feel more confident:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

Sellers have been actively closing their marginal positions today, crossing out a 5-day marathon of positions increasing before:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

Interestingly, it is precisely today that there was no danger. In our opinion, sellers are trying to get out of unprofitable positions to continue Bitcoin price growth in Bitcoin market.

According to the wave analysis, buyers exiting from the global falling channel corrected the fall wave from June 2019 by 50%:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 29th, 2020

If buyers manage to pass the current Fibonacci level, the next stop is at $10,330. The critical point of current growth is in the price mark $8660.

Let’s see if buyers can just as easily continue their growth until the end of this week. Tomorrow, we will see the consequences of today’s consolidation of Bitcoin price.

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