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First Golden Cross on Weekly Bitcoin Chart Since May 2016

  • A golden cross, a possible bullish indicator, has occurred on the weekly Bitcoin chart after a 3-year absence

Bitcoin just had a golden cross on the weekly chart for the first time since May 2016, which is approximately 3.5 years ago. A golden cross is a bullish sign for the crypto space. Indeed, the last time Bitcoin had a golden cross on the weekly chart it marked the beginning of a major bull run that eventually took Bitcoin to its all-time high of USD 20,000 in late 2017.

A golden cross is when a short period moving average of Bitcoin’s price moves above a long period moving average. In this specific case, the 50-week moving average has moved above the 100-week moving average. Equivalently, the price of Bitcoin over the past year is higher than the price of Bitcoin over the past two years, which is an indication that market conditions are improving.

However, a golden cross is a lagging indicator, meaning that it just confirms a trend that is already prevalent. That being said, this golden cross is still positive news, and oftentimes heralds a bull market in the short to medium term. Only time will tell, but another positive factor is that the Bitcoin block halving is coming in May 2020, which is only about five months away.

 

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First Bitcoin Golden Cross Since May 2016?

Bitcoin may achieve a golden cross on the weekly chart for the first time since May 2016, which was 3.5 years ago, and this is a highly bullish sign. The last time a golden cross occurred on the weekly chart, Bitcoin rallied from around USD 500 all the way up to the all-time high of USD 20,000 within 1.5 years.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-period moving average moves above a 100-period moving average on a market chart, and in this case, the period is 1 week. Essentially, a golden cross will happen when the price of Bitcoin over the past year on average is above the price of Bitcoin over the past two years on average.

In this case, Bitcoin just has to rise a little more, or hold steady for the next month, and the golden cross will happen. That being said, sometimes golden crosses are quickly followed by the death cross, where the 50-week moving average drops below the 100-week moving average, if the market is indecisive. Therefore, it will be important to watch how strong the golden cross is, that is, how decisively the 50-week moving average moves above the 100-week moving average. If it is a decisive move it could herald a long term rally.

 

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CME Bitcoin Futures Expiration Induces $700 Dip, $2,600 Rally

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hosts the biggest Bitcoin Futures exchange in the world, and on the last Friday of every month, the futures contracts expire. This expiration often is associated with significant volatility and higher volumes, according to past data.

On 24 October, CME Bitcoin Futures contracts for the month of October expired. In the couple of days before the expiration, the price of Bitcoin dropped from USD 8,000 to as low as USD 7,300, followed by a USD 2,600 rally to $10,100 in the couple of days after the expiration.

This trend of a dip in Bitcoin’s price before the expiration followed by a rally after the expiration has been observed for six months in a row now, and could perhaps be a powerful tool for traders to predict market movements. That being said, sometimes the opposite situation happens around the expiration, where prices rise before the expiration and dip afterward, and some months there is no change around the time of the expiration.

It seems that the specific market behavior around the time of the expiration depends on the ratio of shorts to longs on the CME Bitcoin Futures exchange at the end of the month, although further research on this theory needs to be conducted.

 

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Bitcoin Trading More Profitable on Weekends, Myth or Fact?

Bitcoin Trading More Profitable on Weekends, Myth or Fact_

Flying in blind on a weekend trade can net you more profits – a questionable sentiment recently shared by a few in the cryptocurrency industry. However, considering the fact that a few coincidences in the past may have marked such a pattern in the boom and bust cycle brings the subject into focus. Moreover, with Bitcoin’s price surge in recent weeks, it’s imperative to consider how to leverage this sentiment – if true, as an essential technical analysis.

Remarks about Bitcoin’s rally so far in 2019 have varied from being influenced by a host of new initiatives such as Facebook’s Libra project, to the downright overall healthy Bitcoin ecosystem. Worthy of note, however, is fickle in the price of Bitcoin which may have been more intense in the recent weekends.

According to a post on Bloomberg, round the clock trading of Bitcoin may, in fact, be more profitable on the weekends as recent data showed 40% of price gains so far in 2019 came from increased trading activity on weekends since May.

About a year ago, data compiled by CNBC suggested two notable phenomenal Bitcoin price movements during the weekends:

“Around 82% of the weekends have seen a minimum of 3% move in either direction in Bitcoin prices.”

“Around 60% of the weekends have had a 5% or higher price move over a weekend since December of last year [2017].”

These observations were confirmed by former Morgan Stanley technical strategist Mark Newton, who noted at the time that “volatility on weekends” moved “dramatically up or down.”

Some of the reasons thought to be responsible for this anomaly have been attributed to anticipated news events spawn as speculative developments that may break in the wake of a new week as well as fear of missing out in times of sudden price fickle towards the end of a week. Traders and investors alike supposedly speculate on sudden news or important event that may trigger a price swing on Monday and tend to buy at the weekend dips.

According to David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital, to “bet that Monday morning would have a positive development,” isn’t a bad idea; basing his logic on the fact that the developments in crypto space do happen every day.

For speculators who are more acquainted with the goings in the traditional markets, this would seem rather odd given that Monday to Fridays are the most active trading periods for regular stock assets, and banking operations are limited to weekdays. However, cryptocurrency trading being a 24/7 activity often deviates from expected patterns, with weekends often determining what the new week’s price may begin with.

Overall, despite price movements showing higher volatility on weekends, it was observed that trade volumes were usually low, accounting for fewer people who were actually involved in the market activity. This observation was similar in both last year and current reports.

Generally, the cryptocurrency market at its core deviates from established capital market dynamics despite the semblance in token identity which for most cryptocurrencies represents the state of shares of companies traded on the capital market. However, for most cryptocurrencies in their native blockchain environment, they often portray more than just ‘shares’ of a cryptocurrency project, they perform certain functions within the blockchain ecosystem – utility.

 

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How the ICO Market Has Been Regaining Investor Faith

How the ICO Market Has Been Regaining Investor Faith

In 2018, funds raised from initial coin offerings (ICOs) fell dramatically from over USD 1 and a half billion in January, to under USD 75 million in December.

However, new data showing the activities of the month of May so far indicates that investor faith has begun to regain strength in the light of increasingly highly-rated ICO projects, with 85% of the total projects receiving a high rating between 3-3.5 stars. This is a significant increase, even from April 2019 which claimed an average of just 68% of projects gaining this trusted star rating.

As many viewed ICOs and similar token events as a groundbreaking new way to fund startup projects in the blockchain space, the slow fizzle out of popularity last year was highly disappointing. It seemed to be that these token offerings had collapsed under the weight of up to 80% scam projects flooding the market, as well as crashing prices across nearly all cryptocurrency.

ICO bench data shows that 157 ICOs have been launched in May so far, expanding the total number of published projects to 5,512. There are currently 287 ongoing ICOS, with a further 140 expected in the near future.

A summary of the ICObench ICO Market Half-Monthly Analysis May 2019 report can be accessed for free with a trial subscription on the platform.

Moving away from the established model

Trends away from the established ICO model are likely in reaction to the poor quality and trust standards that became prominent amongst ICOs, beginning in 2017.

The month of May 2019 has so far been overwhelmed by Bitfinex’s USD 1 billion initial exchange offering (IEO) — a relatively new model available to investors where they can participate in a centralized cryptocurrency exchange’s token offering. The exchange involved operates the sales, vetting both the project and prospective investors.

Bitfinex’s IEO has contributed significantly towards this month’s roughly USD 1.075 billion collected in token sales — the highest total funds raised in 2019 to date.

This year has also seen a rise in popularity of security token offerings (STOs). STOs claim to offer a more trusted model than the ICO as the security token issued to investors represents an investment contract, acting similar to ownership information given to investors in the stocks or bonds, just recorded on the blockchain via the token instead.

STOs can be seen as a lower risk than ICOs because they are protected by securities laws that the tokens must comply with, legally enforcing transparency and accountability from the project behind the token.

STOs raised USD 1 and a half million in March 2019; this figure jumps up to over USD 5 and a half million in May so far.

Indeed, because active ICOs have a higher average trust rating than one year ago, it enforces greater trust in investments made across the cryptocurrency market.

The move towards alternative token investment models such as STOs and IEOs could certainly be one reason investors are regaining trust in early blockchain project investment. However, May’s bullish market performance could certainly have also had a great impact on the number of investors willing to participate in token offerings.

 

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Breaking Down the Latest Ethereum Developments

Breaking Down the Latest Ethereum Developments

Ethereum’s core development team is constantly working to improve and make changes to the native blockchain on which the #2 cryptocurrency is built. This can be observed via the on-chain data available, including the popularity of the native smart contracts.

However, as the bulk of the cryptocurrency market enjoys a period of bullish growth, Ethereum is struggling to entice miners to the network due to break-even prices.

What the on-chain dates can tell us

  • Like Bitcoin, active Ethereum addresses (those engaged in transactions within the last 24 hours) have experienced an upturn after 9 months or so of steady decline; this change has coincided with the rise of both cryptocurrencies’ prices.
  • Decentralized finance, or DeFi, has proved to be the second biggest use case so far for Ethereum, private fundraising being the first. Growth in the area of DeFi has been at a lull for the last month or so after demonstrating impressive growth rates since September last year, potentially showing it has reached a temporary structural ceiling.
  • The aggregate number of smart contract interactions have been on the rise since February, coming close to the all-time highest levels, seen in April 2018. Because the number of new ICOs have been at such low levels for over a year now, it can be assumed that the rising smart contract use demonstrates a strengthening of trust in their utility. Stability in Gas cost also implies the network is moving closer to network capacity.

The Ethereum hash rate negative trend

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency, but unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s hash rate has failed to pick up since the favorable market turn. Current market prices have meant Ethereum mining is still unprofitable for many, showing the network has failed to meet equilibrium yet. Compared to Bitcoin, the inflation rate of Ethereum remains high.

The fact that Ethereum will be moving to a Proof-of-Stake system in the near future may also be influencing the lack of miners on the network, although the date of this implementation has already been pushed back once this year.

Ethereum price fluctuations

While Ethereum may not be as bullish right now as Bitcoin or many of the altcoins it has pulled up with it, in the last few days ETH has shown a strong rebound hitting USD 174 before settling around USD 166. Against the USD, Etherum surpassed key levels at USD 169/ USD 179, showing indicators that a climb past USD 180 is viable.

Ethereum is currently +1.25%, trading at USD 173.22; at its peak price in January 2018, Ethereum was trading at USD 1345.07. In December last year, it fell as low as USD 84.00 – a level not experienced since May 2017.

 

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The Top Performing Altcoins This Year so Far

The Top Performing Altcoins This Year So Fa

With the first quarter of 2019 gone, here is a look at the top performing altcoins so far this year, taking into consideration Bitcoin’s bullish strides in the last week or so:

Highest adoption rates: 1)EOS, 2)Tron, 3)BitShares, 4)WAX

Research from Weiss Crypto Rating shows these four altcoins have experienced the highest adoption rates in the last year, proving most sustainable throughout the predominantly bear market time period.

EOS transactions ranked top of the list, the volume increasing from 7,000 per day to about 4.6 million. Tron boasted an increase from around 3,000 to 1.9 million in this time, while BitShares boasted a gain totaling nearly 1.5 million. WAX, with the fourth largest transaction increase, claimed a total of 4.4 million.

Overall, the top 10 cryptocurrencies by transaction volume had an average daily volume increase of 245% within the last year. Weiss’s calculations were based on a seven-day moving average of daily figures.

Highest value increase since the Bitcoin pump

The cryptocurrency market has finally made a rebound thanks to Bitcoin’s bull run, hitting highs not experienced in over a year. Taking with it many of the altcoins, here are the top performers from the top 100 by market cap:

1) VestChain – 95.02%

If you have not heard of VestChain before, that is not surprising; it holds the 98th position on CoinMarketCap. However, since the most recent Bitcoin boom the project has been showing real potential, gaining a huge 95.02% in just the last few weeks

2) Bitcoin Cash – 89.66%

Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin’s recent performance has given investors renewed faith in Bitcoin Cash also, with the altcoin gaining 60% in the 24-hour market rally alone.

3) IOST – 66.19%

On top of the benefits brought from Bitcoin’s performance, IOST has been enjoying a pump triggered by the launch of its mainnet several weeks ago.

4) Dogecoin – 63.77%

After a non-eventful start to the year, Dogecoin has turned it around, climbing over 60% thanks to the bullish market. Tesla founder Elon Musk has also thrown his support behind the token, describing it as ”pretty cool” and probably his favorite cryptocurrency.

Altcoins separate from Bitcoin’s movements

Despite Bitcoin pulling up altcoin performance in the last few weeks, new research has shown that the prices are no longer as correlated as they once were. In 2018, 75 percent of the top 200 coins had a strong correlation with Bitcoin, something comparatively lower this year. This is a good thing for those with or looking to gain diversified portfolios as uncorrelated investments frequently cancel each other out.

This could affect the performance of altcoins throughout the year, with stronger projects likely to be able to make significant gains even if Bitcoin loses momentum.

The research notes, however, that correlations change with time so it is important to keep an eye on the ongoing market trends.

 

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How Google May Prove the Bitcoin Bull Is Here to Stay

economist Joost van de Burgt.

Google searches for the term ‘Bitcoin’ have reached the highest levels since the last November. Researchers have found significant evidence that when there is a spike like this in searches, it reflects a positive market sentiment and buzz around the cryptocurrency which spurs on the bull.

There are several theories behind this:

Google searches show FOMO

Dutch economist Joost van de Burgt found a direct correlation between Google searches and fluctuations in Bitcoin price-the more Google searches of the cryptocurrency spiked, the higher it took the value.

“If the buzz is everywhere, it doesn’t matter exactly what the news is about… nobody wants to miss out and everybody’s trying to get a piece of it,” said van der Burgt, explaining the colloquial theory of fear of missing out, or FOMO, which is often used by the community to explain a bull market.

The economist also noted that regardless of whether mainstream media coverage was positive or negative, whenever Bitcoin was widely reported on, the price increased.

Investor attention can indicate price changes

Researchers from Yale University in Connecticut attribute investor attention as one of the top ways to predict the price movement of cryptocurrency assets. Investor attention can either be a good thing and show hype around a certain asset, or it can relate fear, uncertainty, and despair (FUD).

The research found that a spike in the number of times Bitcoin is Googled can consistently predict a price increase several weeks before it materializes. An increase in negative search terms such as ‘hack’ or ‘crime’ alongside Bitcoin was found to be indicators for a drop in the price quickly after.

Both Ripple and Ethereum were found to display similar trends in line with Google searches, albeit alongside a different timeline.

What is going on this time around

The most recent surge in Bitcoin Google searches occurred on 2 April, alongside the 20% price increase that saw Bitcoin reach the highly anticipated USD 5,000 ceiling.

Google does not share precise numbers of how many times a term is searched for, but data is available on which countries the searches are coming from. And the top nations are somewhat surprising: Nigeria, South Africa, St. Helena, Ghana, followed by the Netherlands. The US, UK, and Canada failed to reach the top 10. This may well show growing support for Bitcoin in markets it has yet to reach.

However, the Google spike has fallen by around 20% in the last few days meaning it is possible that either 1) the reason for the surge falls out of the parameters of both theories, or 2) the bullish trend will be shortlived.

Google searches are still well above any level seen this year and Bitcoin is performing well in the market, sitting around USD 5,150, so there would seem to be a good chance the price will remain at least steady for the time being.

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Vitalik Buterin Concedes Ethereum’s Price Does Matter

Vitalik Buterin Concedes Ethereum's Price Does Matter

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has conceded that the price of Ether (ETH) is important for the future of the ecosystem, despite past comments contradictory to this.

Speaking at the Columbia Journalism School earlier this week, Buterin admitted that in the early days of Ethereum the developers were not focused on the price of ETH. Instead, the efforts were focused on pushing forward the development of smart contracts. They even felt it gave them an edge over other cryptocurrency projects that were promoting ”lambo-ing”, as Buterin put it.

First @laurashin asks @VitalikButerin if he thinks the price of #ETH is important, and then she polls the audience. #unchained pic.twitter.com/8xNIQ0XzJc

— Columbia Blockchain (@ColumbiaCBA) March 20, 2019

Now, however, his outlook has changed. “I’m going to be really candid,” he told the full-house audience, acknowledging that the developers now see that “projects will be better if prices go up”.

ETH currently stands at around USD 135 — a 90% loss from its December 2017 peak, so it is perhaps not surprising that Buterin is concerned over funding for future Ethereum protocol development.

When the Columbia Journalism School audience was polled over whether they believed Ethereum developers were focused enough on the price of ETH, only 13% said yes. About 28% said they believed they should focus more on ETH price, while 39% said they did not care.

 

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Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits 4-Month High, Sparks Optimism

Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits 4 Month High, Sparks Optimism

Bitcoin’s hash rate has reached the highest levels seen since November 2018. The increase in mining power suggests profits available at the current spot price as well as potentially expectations for a future price increase.

Surpassing 52 quintillion hashes per second Tuesday 19 March, mining difficulty has changed little for the last month or so, meaning new miners have had an easier time bringing their rigs online.

As well as benefiting the security of the Bitcoin network by adding more hash power, it shows growing confidence in the network’s future as more resources are invested in mining operations.

Taking to Twitter to comment on hash rate movements last year, Casa CTO Jameson Lopp proclaimed:

”Hashrate follows price… Miners are speculators too!”

Hashrate follows price. Some folks believe price follows hashrate, possibly because hashrate doesn’t simply track ~spot~ price, but rather tracks some ~speculative~ future price. Miners are speculators too!

— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) June 23, 2018

Concerns were raised over low hash rates in alignment with price plummets in 2018 as less efficient mining rigs were disabled to avoid operating at a loss, although the remaining miners benefitted from steady difficulty rates.

Mining difficulty is expected to increase again shortly, however, given this hash rate peak with more miners expected to join the network.

 

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