Der Beitrag Münchner Start-up Tangany erhält Kryptoverwahrlizenz erschien zuerst auf BTC-ECHO.
Der Beitrag Cold Storage: Bitcoin-Hodler sparen fleißiger denn je erschien zuerst auf BTC-ECHO.
- A Delphi Digital report shows that 59% of the Bitcoin supply is being HODLED
According to a report from crypto research firm Delphi Digital, the amount of Bitcoin HODLING is at all-time highs, with 59% of the entire Bitcoin supply being held for more than one year. The amount of Bitcoin that has been held for more than two years is crawling upwards and is around 40%. In-fact, USD 1.6 billion of Bitcoin purchased during the late 2017 bull run has not moved. This suggests that numerous investors expect Bitcoin to head back towards all-time highs near USD 20,000.
Additionally, the number of Bitcoins that have been held for more than 5 years is consistently rising and is now approaching 20%. This is notable since this group of HODLERS has already made an enormous amount of money, but are perhaps continuing to hold in expectation of Bitcoin continuing to gain value in the long term.
Interestingly, so much Bitcoin is currently being held that it is causing trading volumes to shrink. This could be a sign that market supply is drying up due to HODLING, which could eventually lead to a Bitcoin rally.
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A study released by Diar on 17 September 2018 found that 42% of all Bitcoin in circulation were held in wallets containing over BTC 200 that have had zero outgoing transactions since the price peak of USD 20,000 in December 2017. This indicates that Bitcoiners are strongly hodling, and this probably explains the USD 5,800 support level that has been tested over and over during 2018 but remains impenetrable.
Wallets holding over BTC 200 are easily classified as investment wallets, since as of 26 September, BTC 200 is worth USD 1.3 million. Additionally, 27% of these investment wallets have added to their balances despite the bear market of 2018.
Diar research makes estimates about the rest of the Bitcoins, suggesting that 13% are used for transactions and very liquid, 15% are in exchange wallets and actively being bought and sold, and a whopping 30% of Bitcoins, which is BTC 5.2 million, are lost or illiquid. This estimation of lost Bitcoins dwarfs other estimates which say BTC 2 million are lost, but also includes some BTC 1 million mined by Satoshi Nakamoto that haven’t moved, making them illiquid. It is practically impossible to exactly estimate how many Bitcoins are lost or illiquid.
Regardless, the important thing to learn from this study is that 28% of Bitcoins are liquid and actively being traded, while at least 42% are being held in investment wallets. This probably explains why despite immense selling pressure during 2018, Bitcoin has not gone below USD 5,800. Bitcoin has bounced off the USD 5,800 to USD 6,500 range multiple times.
Basically, there are far fewer Bitcoins that are liquid and able to be dumped than those being held by whales, and far fewer liquid Bitcoins when compared to held Bitcoins combined with lost or illiquid Bitcoins. As Bitcoin’s price crashes, the supply in the hands of those willing to dump them dwindles. This study from Diar is proof that Bitcoin selling can be exhausted, since most Bitcoins are not available for sale. Clearly, that point of Bitcoin selling exhaustion is somewhere around USD 5,800, a level likely set by the law of supply and demand.
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Recent data from Chainalysis — a blockchain research company, as published in Financial Times shows that the amount of Bitcoin owned by long-term investors is now almost equaled by speculators, reports Cointelegraph.
Day trading has increased since the end of last year and the amount held by this group is thought to have risen to 5.1 mln BTC according to the report compared to 6mln BTC held by investors hanging on in for the long-term, that is over a period of one year.
It appears, according to the Financial Times, that Bitcoin volumes have fallen in tandem to prices, from $4 bln daily in December to $1 bln today. It’s thought this may be a feature in Bitcoins decline in price, Chainalysis chief economist Philip Gradwell suggests. He estimates that longer-term holders sold at least $30 billion worth of bitcoin to new speculators over the December to April period, with half of this movement taking place in December alone.
Another feature of the current situation shown by the data is the imbalance of wealth distribution of the digital currency, that is small numbers of investors holding a vast amount of the cryptocurrency. Of the roughly 17 mln Bitcoin available, the data show that, as of April 2018, around 1,600 Bitcoin wallets hold at least 1,000 bitcoins each, equalling almost 5 mln BTC and accounting for almost a third of all Bitcoin in circulation.
Six months after its peak, bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency, though its price has fallen to about $7,650 at the time of publication. It follows that for each of the bitcoin millionaires there are numerous casualties that came into cryptocurrency too late, unlike those who established themselves early and reaped the benefits.
One of these is a 39-year-old who has made enough money from trading digital currencies over 5 years to pay off his mortgage, buy a Mercedes and now swap office life for managing his remaining crypto investments full-time, writes The Irish Times.
“It was very euphoric…It’s been life-changing for me at this point,” says the California-based father of two, who has a cult-like Twitter following under the pen name ‘bitcoin Dad’.
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When Didi Taihuttu (pictured, far right, with his family) sold everything he owned to go all-in on Bitcoin last year, his controversial decision evoked diverse reactions from the public and the crypto sphere. A minor celebrity in his home country of the Netherlands, Didi received admiration from some who felt he made a courageous decision, while others perceived his actions as irresponsible, owing to the uncertain future of Bitcoin.
Better known as the ‘Dad’ of his ‘BitcoinFamily’, Didi has been a proponent of a new minimalist lifestyle ever since, being outspoken on the benefits it has had on his family. Six months after his life-changing act, Bitcoin News caught up with him, speaking about the driving forces behind his decision, as well as on the trajectory of fintech start-ups and initial coin offerings (ICOs).
Supporting the financial revolution
Bitcoin News (BN): You sold your family home in the Netherlands to live in a chalet with your family, and are currently in the process of selling your possessions in order to invest further into Bitcoin. What is the primary cause driving you to change your life like this?
Didi: We went all-in [on] Bitcoin between February and September 2017. The two main reasons are on the one hand I felt the monetary revolution was starting and on the other hand we did it to live a minimalist lifestyle and show our children we can be very happy without having all the luxury. We had always been very materialistic but during our world trip, we discovered that we were very happy traveling with just three backpacks and staying in small guesthouses. So we sold everything, ended up with a bag of money and decided to go all in crypto to support the revolution.
BN: Did you question your decision at all when the value of Bitcoin plunged in December last year?
Didi: No, because we were still in profit and we agreed that we were hodling minimal to 2020 to see what happens. I experienced some crashes earlier that year so you get used to it. Hahaha. I do trade daily with about 20% of our capital to multiply our BTC. To be honest we think that we will stay into it till the point that we can use our crypto to pay for our daily needs and that we don’t need to change back to fiat ever again. In the end, Bitcoin will be much higher and this will go with ups and downs.
On minimalism and not buying a Lambo
BN: Has the government ever tried to contact you or your family about the changes you have made?
Didi: Yes of course because it’s not allowed to travel with your children and not send them to school in the Netherlands. We solved this together with them and now everything is fine. They didn’t contact me about the crypto part though.
BN: You have spoken positively of the minimalist lifestyle that this has created, but also that you are holding out for long-haul massive gains that you expect from Bitcoin. Does this make it contradictory for you to be a proponent of minimalism?
Didi: No not at all, because we don’t choose to be poor but we choose to live a minimalist lifestyle. People need to understand that minimalism is not about being poor but about living a bit more conscious and spending crypto or money on things that you really need. We are all products from the forced buy economy in the 1990s but did we really get happier because of buying more and more?
That said, for us, it is no problem at all if we go bankrupt because of this adventure. Then we will just start over again. If we will make huge profits we can live this minimalist lifestyle for a very long time. We are not going to buy a Lambo etc. because we would rather spend it on, for example, educating poor people around the world about crypto and how to use it.
BN: What do you say to your critics that see it as problematic to put your family in a seemingly unstable living environment for the sake of bitcoin? Is there something in particular about bitcoin that you see as a worthy cause to do this perhaps?
Didi: Firstly people need to understand that it was a family choice. My wife and kids agreed on this lifestyle and adventure. Mostly when people say things like “it’s not healthy or normal to live on a campsite with your kids”, I just ask them if it’s healthy to work your ass off for 48 weeks a year to spend two weeks with their kids on that same campsite?
We respect everybody for how they live and just hope people can respect us for the way we live. We chose to spend more time with our family and really educate our children the way we want. Our kids are very happy and traveling the world and learning a lot from this. Is this the right decision? We don’t know but we try to live and enjoy life day by day and teach our kids to do so as well, because we can’t predict the future, so why worry about it?
Faith in Bitcoin and blockchain
BN: Do you have a contingency plan if things all fall apart?
Didi: No, we don’t have a plan B and we won’t be needing it because blockchain and crypto won’t fall apart. It will change the world in a way most people can’t even imagine at this point in life. As said we try not to worry about the future because we can’t predict it. I think people worry way too much about the past or future even though they know they can’t change it. Just do what makes you happy every day and enjoy doing that. We are writing a book about our Bitcoin adventure at the moment so maybe that will turn into plan B.
BN: Bitcoin has always received a lot of criticism; now it is largely focused on fraudulent ICOs. As an advisor to several blockchain projects, what advice would you give startups looking to foster a trusting, legitimate business network in this time of bad press?
Didi: There are many ways but most important is that the ICO’s product needs to have a real use case. If it has a real use case, then ICObench is, for example, one of the platforms where you can present your ICO. Use the help of experienced ICO advisors. With experience, I mean people that have experience in running businesses and have experience in crypto as well. Those advisors can guide you and provide you with a network and thus investors.
People sometimes ask me, “but how can you be an advisor? You just sold your house and got a bit famous”. People seem to forget that I also sold the companies that I built from scratch and had been running for 15 years with 16 employees at peak time. People forget that I started mining Bitcoin and Dogecoin in 2012 and experienced many crashes. But they are right that we got a follower base because of our decisions and that could be helpful for an ICO as well.
5-dollar white paper ICOs vs “real decentralized currency”
BN: 46% of ICOs have been reported to have launched in Q1 of this year with just an idea, and no coding or further development done. Do you feel there is true world value to all of these projects launching, and do you feel startups have a responsibility to provide an initial investment to fund some project development?
Didi: I don’t know all the projects but I think there are projects that lack value. But I don’t think that projects need to provide an initial investment because then the whole meaning of an ICO or crowdfunding aspect disappears. Investors just need to do research before stepping into the ICO. In the end, it is your decision to invest in the ICO or not.
I would never invest in a project that just has a nice white paper and nothing else to show. You can buy a whitepaper online for USD 5 so that’s the value. If you want to be sure if it’s a real good ICO, visit them or meet them at a conference and talk with them. Then decide to go in. If you don’t want to take time to research then just invest money you can afford to lose. I invested, for example, USD 250 in the Electroneum ICO last year which gave me about USD 2,800 in return. If I had lost the USD250 it wouldn’t have been a drama.
BN: Do you see the future of cryptocurrencies dominated by different tokens, or do you believe Bitcoin will retain its position as the most crucial player?
Didi: I do think that for example Ethereum, Litecoin, and NEO will be big players in the future as well but in my opinion, Bitcoin is and will stay the leader. It has the advantage of being the first, the advantage of the biggest network and most importantly the advantage of being “the only real decentralized currency”.
Many new currencies have a marketing team and a leader or a foundation led by a spokesman etc. What if this leader leaves the company and a new leader comes with other ideas? If the government wants to shut them down, they can go to that office or leader and really shut it down. Is it then really decentralized? With Bitcoin, this is not the case. There is no company or spokesman, you can’t shut them down or influence it in any way. You can just copy(fork) it and try to improve it and that was exactly Satoshi’s vision.
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Bitcoin proponent and former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Tom Lee, has recently encouraged Bitcoin traders to hold their coins despite its loss of 40% value so far this year.
Lee’s experience as a stock analyst has given him heightened insight into the current market slump Bitcoin is experiencing. In a note written by Lee on 28 April, he describes the current situation as a matter of market timing, which is usually advised against in traditional equity investing.
As Lee alluded to, “If an investor missed out on the 10 best days (for S&P 500) each year, the annualized return drops to 5.4 percent (ex-10 best), from 9.2 percent. In other words, the case for buy and hold in equities is the opportunity cost of missing out on the 10 best days”.
Based on Lee’s statement, this means that if an investor missed the 10 best Bitcoin preforming days every year their annual returns would decrease by 25%. Fundstrat data released by Lee, who heads the research department, shows that on average Bitcoin was in fact down every year if the top 10 day gains are excluded.
Considering the majority of Bitcoin market gains are condensed into a small number of days each year, Lee recommends that holding is the most potentially profitable option.
Despite the recent market instability across a number of cryptocurrencies (notably Ethereum), Fundstrat still holds the prediction that the value of Bitcoin will cross USD 25,000 by the end of 2018.
One of the main obstacles Bitcoin faces is uncertain regulatory conditions that disincentivize potential investors. Fundstrat analysts included in the same note as Lee said that they expected Bitcoin challenges to subside by the latter part of 2018, including ”the clarification of regulatory hurdles”.
The predictions from Fundstrat may well encourage many to HODL, the now infamous typo of a frantic trader’s appeal to hold on to Bitcoin, that has become the mantra of Bitcoin enthusiasts.
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