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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis January 1st, 2019

  • December monthly candle closed below the critical price zone $138-145 and looks pretty confident.
  • If buyers manage to regain the range $138-145, the next global target is $210.
  • In case of closure of the next few weekly candles below $138, a test of $115 is inevitable.

New Year miracle. This term expresses something light, pleasantly unpredictable and unusual. However, this concept was not present on Ethereum market this time. For the last two days of the old year, buyers did not start fixing Ethereum price above the price range $138-145. After testing this range on 29 December, buyers simply stopped and apparently went out to celebrate, giving a local initiative to sellers. It is how the local consolidation which has formed since 18 December has seamlessly transitioned into the new year:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 1st January, 2019

The weekly timeframe shows us that unsuccessfully closed candle of the previous week for sellers, did not inspire buyers to try to regain the purple range $138-145. Thus, for the third week, the candle is trading below the critical price range. And with each new weekly candle, sellers will have increased confidence that they will continue to fall.

The monthly weekly candle in Ethereum market closed much more confidently than in Bitcoin market:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 1st January, 2019

Of course, the pin is present, but most of the candle consists of the body, which indicates the dominance of sellers. The only fact which should be alarming is the decrease of volumes during updating local lows and identical volatility of Ethereum price.

Buyers’ marginal positions have been consolidating at the historical high for 4 months now:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 1st January, 2019

The last truly confident monthly candle on the chart of buyers’ marginal positions was recorded in December 2018.

During the year, sellers were able to update the historical low on the chart of marginal positions 2 times:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 1st January, 2019

The latest update was just on 30-31 December. Isn’t it a New Year’s miracle?:)

Ethereum coin sellers were able to correct the growth from December 2018 by almost 78.2%, which is a pretty deep correction:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 1st January, 2019

For example, on Bitcoin chart correction was 50%. It indicates to less investors interest at the moment. In case of Bitcoin growth it is unknown how actively buyers will raise Ethereum price. The global buyers critical point is at $210. However, first let’s see if buyers can still fix above $145. Otherwise, there is nothing to stop sellers from trying to re-test $115.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

  • Ethereum price continues to move in the 8% range between $122-133.
  • Volumes during the fall are systematically reduced, which indicates the need for correction and test of the black wedge upper trend line.
  • Sellers were unable to fix below the level of Fibonacci 0.5.

Ethereum price movement did not surprise us all week. Since 16 December, after breaking through Ethereum price range $138-145, consolidation in the range $122-133 has formed in Ethereum market. In percentage terms it is 8.5%. Throughout the week, buyers have never been able to at least touch the critical range $138-145. It indicates their great weakness. Compared to the situation in Bitcoin market, Bitcoin buyers are more likely to reverse the trend and initiative. After testing the upper and lower limits of consolidation, buyers are now starting a new local attack with a target $133.

If we analyze what is happening with the volumes in Ethereum market, it is noticeable that strong growth started just after the large volumes on the market:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

As volumes grew, they fell proportionally so the trend did not change during the fall. Sellers cannot keep up with the rapid fall by updating local highs, as there are few buyers left in positions. Therefore, by logic, a correction to the black wedge upper trend line would be appropriate. However, we do not see the prerequisites for it yet.

Even more so the price is below the critical price range $138-145, so continuing to fall and break the current consolidation down is more likely given the current chart.

The movement of marginal positions of buyers this week was not too bright:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

Marginal positions indicator is near the upper trend line. Considering it, buyers are in a good mood and confident in continuing their growth.

But on the chart of marginal positions of buyers the situation looks brighter:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

This week, sellers updated the historical low on the chart of marginal positions. In such a way, they indicate their uncertainty about the fall continuation.

All this happens when the price moves in the 8% range.

According to the wave analysis, sellers were unable to fix below Fibonacci level 0.5 and update the previous local low:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

It gives buyers a chance to break consolidation $122-133 next week and try to fix in the price zone $138-145. After fixing over $145, the final target of buyers is $190.

Sellers have practically managed to correct their previous wave of growth by 78.2% since December 2018. Therefore, the test of $113 is quite real, given that the scenario of the test of $138-145 is currently an alternative rather than a basic one. Let’s see what buyers in Ethereum market can change by the end of the year and summarize the overall situation on Tuesday.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

  • An unsuccessful growth attempt of buyers prevented Ethereum price from moving beyond the consolidational limits on 18 December.
  • Sellers need less effort to lower the price than buyers to raise it.
  • The fall wave (C) is not over and sellers are trying to repeat the test of $116.

Yesterday, Ethereum price movement ended with a test of $132 and a big daily pin up. Growth in Ethereum market was about 7%. But the closing price was higher than the daily candle opening price by only 0.7%. Looking at the daily timeframe, yesterday buyers managed to test the upper limit of consolidation, in which the price is moving since 18 December. Exactly this limit does not allow buyers to even touch the critical price range $138-145, over which buyers lost control on 16 December.

Yesterday’s candle shows us that it is now sellers’ turn to try to exit of current consolidation and try to fix below $122 with target to test $115. Similar to the situation with Bitcoin, volumes during the growth are drastically different from volumes during the fall. The 4-hour timeframe clearly shows that the two candles on increased volumes are no different from the two candles of sellers, with minimal volumes:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

It shows the lack of efforts of buyers and the large number of sellers who with limit orders restrain the price. However, buyers do not try to keep the price from falling. That’s why it is so easy for sellers to neutralize buyers’ attacks without volume.

Analyzing buyers’ marginal positions, their yesterday’s attempt to grow provoked the closure of marginal positions:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Buyers are trying to reduce their marginal positions while the price is in consolidation to connect during the trend.

The situation on the chart of sellers’ marginal positions looks more painful:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Buyers were actively reducing their marginal positions yesterday and left the channel today, accelerating the trend of the fall.

The wave analysis seems to indicate that wave (C) has not yet completed its formation:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Sellers are trying fix below the level of Fibonacci 0.5 for repeated local low test and at the mark $116. As we can see, yesterday’s growth is not reflected in the weekly timeframe. Let’s see if sellers will use their advantage and let’s analyze the chances of buyers to at least test the price range $138-145.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

  • Ethereum price is stuck in the local range $127-133.
  • Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum buyers failed to test their critical price range $138-145.
  • Despite slowing of the falling trend, the initiative continues to be in the hands of sellers.

The beginning of the trading week in Ethereum market began with the price lowering. The growth attempt in 22 December began on low volumes. Although to achieve the result in the face of such an important price range $138-145 catastrophically requires aggressive steps with increased volumes. Today, buyers have decided to try to move beyond local consolidation. But they only managed to form a false breakdown. The local range $127-133, in which Ethereum price has been trading for 5 days, does not allow buyers to even touch the critical price range $138-145.

It shows that buyers are not ready to start a strong growth trend. At 4-hours timeframe it is noticeable that the attack of buyers is extremely easy change to counter-attack of sellers. And buyers managed to keep the price only at the bottom limit of the local consolidation. Comparing the success of Ethereum coin buyers with the success of Bitcoin buyers, we can see that the results are different. Bitcoin buyers have aggressively tested their critical range. They don’t allow to lower the price below conquered territory. It indicates that investors are more interested in Bitcoin at the moment.

Despite yesterday’s price lowering, the marginal positions of buyers have increased and have the prospect of continued increase:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Sellers continue to close their marginal positions and move in the black falling channel:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

According to the wave analysis, buyers managed to correct the fall wave from 27 November by 50%. However, given the global fall, the current buyers growth attempt does not present any threat of a trend change:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Yes, the fall is suspended and Ethereum price range is decreasing. However, there is a lack of signals from buyers who do not yet dare to even test the main critical point of this coin.

In general, after the closing of the previous week’s candle with a big pin, high hopes for this week’s buyers counter-attack:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Nevertheless, as we can see, the previous pin has succeeded in stopping the pace of sellers, but did not change the market situation.

Let’s see how the local consolidation in the range of $127-133 will end.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

  • Ethereum price fall this week is 20%.
  • Sellers have tested the lower trend line of the black wedge at the mark $116.
  • The weekly candle closes with the prospect of a local price reversal next week.

Ethereum trading week ends with a partial regain of buyers’ positions. The weekly timeframe clearly shows the test of the black wedge lower trend line and a pin larger than the candle body. Thus, the breakdown of the critical zone $138-145 at the end of the week does not look as sure as it did at the beginning. Therefore, next week there is a high probability of a new fight for the price range $138-145. Overall, Ethereum price fall this week is 20%.

The daily timeframe shows a 4-day price stop, which is more like preparing for the attack on the purple zone:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

The prospect of creating a local growth trend is still being finalized at the mark $160, where the black wedge upper trend line passes. In the process of shaping the trend, it will become clear how aggressively targeted buyers are and whether they will have enough volume to break through the global wedge.

Buyers’ margin positions actively moved within 2 days during the week. The rest of the time, buyers were quite lazy:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

However, the sharp increase of marginal positions on the day of the price fall indicates confidence of buyers to continue price growth. Moreover, Ethereum price  sharply turned around immediately after the fall.

Sellers continue to reduce their marginal positions and be in a downtrend:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

According to the wave analysis, the wave (c) probably completed its formation, testing the level of Fibonacci 0.618:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3kLxkHZs/

Thus, to break the current global trend, it is enough to fix above 0.382. It will be a great signal to start growth with the first global target $206. An alternative scenario would come into effect if buyers failed to take control of $138-145. In this case, sellers will again storm the price mark $115. If Ethereum price fixes below this mark the new horizons will open for sellers with a final target $85.

Therefore, we expect buyers to have a decent response to the breakthrough of $138-145. We will see whether our main scenario has worked out next week.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

  • For the second day, buyers are trying to nail down a success of growth on 18 December.
  • A sharp 16% growth of Ethereum price began after false breakdown of the local mark $122.
  • A critical point to start global growth is $142.

Today is a fairly quiet day in Ethereum market. After the black wedge bottom trend line test, buyers noticeably revived and completely covered sellers’ previous daily candle. However, if we compare the aggression of Bitcoin buyers, we can see that they failed to even test the main critical price zone $138-145. Although, 15% Ethereum price growth in one day is a good result.

Analyzing the weekly timeframe, we can see that no special volumes were recorded this week:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

The weekly candle is half consists of the body and half of the pin. If buyers manage to close a weekly candle in the range $138-145 – then the whole next week can be very positive for buyers, with the first target $170.

If we analyze in detail the change of forces in the market, the 4-hour timeframe shows that the sharp price reversal began after breaking the local price mark $122:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

Pay attention to how initially sellers approached this mark. Look how aggressive candles with high volume moved into normal consolidation without volumes. After a false breakout, buyers began their attack. If we recall our previous analyzes, the main target of ending the fall was the mark $115. Sellers lacked $1 of price lowering to satisfy our scenario completely.

Buyers margins unexpectedly increased, though everything seemed they will continue to close:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

After two successful days in the chart of sellers’ marginal positions, the upward trend has not formed. It is unlikely that during Ethereum price growth, sellers will increase their margins:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

In the wave analysis we decided to change the structure of the falling wave and divide it into 3 waves:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

Thus, we see that the wave (c) = 0.618 * (a). The critical point for global growth continues to be in the purple range, at the mark $142. This mark passes Fibonacci Level 0.382.

In addition, the upper black wedge trend line also passes near this price mark. In theory, the fall wave from 24 June is coming to an end. However, practically buyers have to prove their intentions with volumes and fixing above the mark $142. Let’s see on Sunday how the daily candle closes. And if there is any buyers power left for a decisive battle.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

  • Sellers were able to break through the important price range of $138-145.
  • The global target of sellers is $115.
  • The systematic reduction of trading volumes throughout the year can give rise to a new powerful wave of growth.

It is extremely easy for sellers to win every victory for critical points in the Ethereum market. This time, an important trophy in the form of a price zone of $138-145 went to sellers almost without a fight. After a small stop of Ethereum price in the purple range, sellers on medium volumes were able to move beyond the price zone. This simplicity is frightening and makes us wonder that not many buyers are in Ethereum market. Pay attention to the volumes of trading as they decrease in proportion throughout the year:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

Moving past important critical points with minimal volumes is more like deception, which at any moment can turn to the truth in the form of a sharp counter-movement of the price.

The 4-hour timeframe looks attractive enough to continue the local fall:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

Sellers’ confident candle seems anomalous for this timeframe volume, which is closed with practically no pin, giving a great chance of the fall continuation with the final target of $115.

With regard to the chart of marginal positions of buyers, the situation looks clear that positions will continue to decrease:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

Pay attention to counteraction which buyers organized to the previous wave of closing of the marginal positions. It is not a defense at all, it is a small stop.

Sellers have steadily increased their marginal positions today. However, there is no talk of an uptrend yet:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

According to the wave analysis, the current fall wave, which started on 24 June, has already corrected the previous wave of growth by 61.8%. And now it is confidently moving to the next level of Fibonacci 78.2%:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 17th December 2019

At the price mark $115, buyers will have another chance to show themselves and try to impose their game, continuing growth from December 2018.

In any case, breaking an important range does not mean fixing below it. Of course, the initiative clearly still belongs to sellers, but we will give at least a day for buyers move. Will buyers allow to continue the fall so easily? We will see on Wednesday.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 15th December 2019

  • Buyers managed to keep the price range $138-145 under their control.
  • The trend of sellers continues to move in the wedge, which indicates their weakening.
  • A local critical point for Ethereum price growth is $170; global critical point is $232.

During the last Ethereum price trading week, sellers again managed to test the purple price zone $138-145. Compared to 22 November’s breakthrough attempt, the current local attack is much more passive in terms of candles and volumes. During yesterday’s and today’s attempts to break past $138-145, sellers failed to update the local low, which was set on 12 December. This is another fact that confirms the weakness of sellers.

From 25 November to 29 November, buyers organized a 20% correction of the previous fall wave. Sellers in response to this correction were slowly lowering the price within 2 weeks. At the same time, they failed to even test the low set on 25 November. Therefore, we believe that the correction of the fall wave from 18 November is still incomplete.

Despite the unsuccessful attempt to break through $138-145, buyers are planning to grow to the upper trend line of the black wedge:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 15th December 2019

Looking at the mood of buyers on the weekly timeframe on the chart of marginal positions shows that the activity of increasing positions, as in the case of Bitcoin, is not recorded:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 15th December 2019

But this week, sellers have an important achievement. The chart of marginal positions recorded an update of the historical low. It indicates the complete uncertainty of sellers in this situation:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 15th December 2019

Looking at the picture more globally and taking the fall wave of June 2019 as a correction to the previous growth wave, then the last local wave (V) of the global falling impulse is now coming to an end:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 15th December 2019

If buyers still keep the price zone $138-145, then the critical point for global growth will be $232.

Considering that the fall wave of June 2019 corrected the previous wave of growth by 61.8%, which is a fairly deep correction, the probable final target of buyers is $330.

Therefore, when Ethereum price goes beyond the black wedge, we will receive the first signal for the medium-term growth with the first target $233. After fixing above this mark, the way to $330 is free. Let’s see if buyers will be able to implement at least part of our scenario. And as early as Tuesday, we will analyze the local situation on Ethereum market for a new week.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 13th December 2019

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 13th December 2019

  • Ethereum price continues to consolidate over the price range $138-143.
  • If the fall will continue, the final target of sellers is $116.
  • A slight price rebound after the fall from 18 November by 38.2% slightly increases the probability of the price fall continuation.

Yesterday’s trading day on Ethereum market ended with another unsuccessful attempt by sellers to fix below $143. Ethereum price since 25 November continues to move within the triangle, which is constantly limiting the range of price movement and creating more intrigue. The formation of such a triangle is caused by a sharp price fall from 18 November. Considering the weakness of Ethereum price rebound after the first storm of the price range $138-145, we can conclude that buyers do not yet have enough strength to change the market globally.

Therefore, the probability of continuing to fall and break the consolidation down is quite possible. To forecast the movement of the price until it is in consolidation is thankless task, since the probability at best is 60-40. Therefore, we are waiting for a clear signal, namely the fixing of the price below the purple zone. Then the scenario of continuing the fall to $116 will become the main one.

Looking at the alternative scenario, we see that during the triangle break up, the critical point for buyers is at $161, where the black trend line of the global wedge now passes. Only after breaking this mark and the trend line we can talk about the global change of the trend.

Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe, we noticed that it is not easy for buyers to form their local trend:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 13th December 2019

Pay attention to the efforts which buyers make in the form of volumes and how candles are closed in the long run. It confirms the opinion that there are still a lot of sellers on the market. So they will not allow to organize a sharp price growth.

On the chart of buyers’ marginal positions an intriguing consolidation has been for a week:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 13th December 2019

Buyers have no common mood and expectation.

Sellers, despite their dominance in the market, continue to reduce their marginal positions, while being at historical lows:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 13th December 2019

Wave analysis shows that wave (e) is now beginning to form, after which it becomes clear which scenario will be the main one for us. After correcting the fall wave from 18 November by 38.2%, buyers showed weakness. And during the breakdown of the current consolidation downwards, the fall will be as fast as the previous one.

Let’s see if buyers can make a difference and test $161 by the end of the week. Meet you on Sunday in a weekly analysis of Ethereum price.

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Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

  • The threat of the fall continuation to $115 is possible after Ethereum price will fix below $135.
  • Marginal positions of buyers have completed their fall, but the improvement of the mood of buyers is not felt.
  • If buyers keep the lower limit of created triangle then we will expect the formation of a wave (e) with a target $150.

The initiative of Ethereum buyers ended with a failure yesterday. After the formation of the candle from 8 December, buyers have created all the conditions for continued growth except the corresponding volumes. Therefore, during 9 and 10 December, sellers quietly broke the beginning of the upward trend. Now, they are moving towards the price mark $143. In general, Ethereum price is in the purple range and buyers are still safe. To continue falling to $115, sellers need to drastically increase volumes and fix below $135.

The 4-hour timeframe shows that sellers are limiting price growth with the blue trend line. And the current consolidation range is limited by 5%:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

Crossing the blue trend line which is now near the mark $150, buyers will show that they are ready to build a new wave of growth. So, now we have two critical points: $143 and $150. For a clearer definition of the further scenario, it is worth waiting for the reactions of market participants in these marks.

As for the mood of buyers, the question here is quite complicated:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

As we can see from the chart of buyers’ marginal positions, the dynamics of the fall stopped. And now the consolidation has started, which is more like a stop before the fall continuation.

Having tested the bottom line of global consolidation, the margins of sellers from yesterday began to increase:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

Looking at volumes and nature of the price movement, the continuation of consolidation within the formed triangle is the most realistic scenario.

According to wave analysis, buyers have every chance to retest the blue trend line by generating wave (e):

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

If buyers fail to fix above $150, the next wave of fall should confidently break through the purple range with a final target of $115 and a temporary stop at $130:

Ethereum Price and Technical Market Analysis 11th December 2019

Therefore, we look forward to the end of the trading week in Ethereum market. On Friday, we will see whether one of the parties has managed to get closer to our critical points.

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