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Ethereum Market Analysis: 14th April 2019

After a successful breakthrough of the most important, in our opinion, price zone of USD 150-160, buyers this week tried to consolidate a successful continued growth. However, sellers still decided to intervene in this process and returned the price below the trendline, under which the price is moving from December 2018. The price has returned to the triangle and the situation is ambiguous. On the one hand, buyers have broken through the price zone of USD 150-160 and already for the second time proven that they keep it:

On the other hand, it is not very believable that the breakthrough of USD 150-160 price zone was true. If we look at the chart on a weekly timeframe, we see a sure green candle, but the volumes do not coincide this candle at all:

Therefore, we think that buyers still have to fight for a price zone of USD 150-160 to prove other market participants their strength and intentions to continue to grow.

According to the mood of buyers, it is clear that the belief in the continuation of growth is falling. This is evidenced by the chart of marginal buyers’ positions:

We decided to show the marginal positions of the sellers on a weekly timeframe. It is better to see the global situation of positions and the trend of movement:

As you can see, marginal positions of sellers have updated the historical low and are globally in the triangle since April 2018. Therefore, we now have a high probability of a rebound and an increase in marginal positions, which may lead to a price fall.

In the wave analysis, the price movement, which took place from December 2018 and represented by a triangle, in which each updated local high was not higher than the previous one, but the corrections were deep enough, we mean it like correction:

Pay attention, how clearly the price moves between the levels of Fibonacci. The first two local highs could not break through 78.6%, and the current high stopped at 100% of the wave a.

If you look closely, then the last impulse of the fall began at the end of September 2018. At the moment, buyers were able to correct this fall by 61.8%:

Even if buyers intend to continue growing, although the volumes do not yet confirm this, we think that before should be the test of USD 150-160. However, this test should take place in a genuine fight, rather than on a lazy price, drifting without volumes.

Next week, we expect the sellers to be more active and demonstrate their strength. The critical point for sellers is USD 190. If buyers can fix above this price – we will consider an alternative growth option. Meanwhile, the price is within the limits of the triangle and continues to check the nerves of investors for strength.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Chart Courtesy: TradingView

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 7th April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 7th April 2019

After breaking through the price zone of $135-140 by buyers, which occurred without increased volumes, sellers had a chance to reverse the situation and continue their fall. However, sellers did not have enough strength to do this. Buyers have shown that at such volumes, they can control the situation and after the test of the price zone of $135-140 by sellers, starting from the new month began a sharp rise to another critical point at $155-160:

At the moment, buyers are able to break through this price zone and even showed that they are ready to keep it. After breaking through $160, two following days, sellers at large volumes tried to lower and fix the price below $155, but so far they have failed. On a smaller timeframe (4h) we see that a growth channel has been formed, in which the price moves, after the failed attempt by sellers to take the situation into their own hands:

Now, we are in the position of a possible global trend change. On a daily timeframe, we see that buyers have tested the top trend line of the falling channel, in which the price moves from January 2018. Therefore, in spite of all the efforts of the buyers, in our opinion, there is more chance of continuing the movement in this channel, because it’s not so easy to break the first attempt, a trend that has been going on for over a year. Therefore, to begin with, we expect another verification of the strength of the price zone of $155-160 ​​with the possible ultimate target of $100:

Marginal seller positions updated the historical low:

At the moment, sellers do not believe in the continuation of the fall and are panic-closing their positions.

The positions of buyers, on the contrary, are on the historical high and move on the wedge from December 2018:

Based on the mood of market participants either sellers and buyers are confident in the continuation of growth. However, we know that when everyone is confident in the price direction, the market can unexpectedly surprise us.

We want to draw attention to one more fact. If you look at the falling channel from January 2018, we see that in December 2018, sellers were able to go beyond the channel. Therefore, we predict that an identical situation may happen with the top trend line of this channel:

According to the wave analysis, at weekly timeframes, we see that at a price of $175, the wave Y = 0.618 * W. After the price touch this price, it sharply jumped down:

Therefore, as long as the price is in the global falling channel and within the blue triangle, we believe that the probability of a continuation of the fall with the first target of $155-160 and the ultimate of $100 is more likely. An alternative scenario is the breakdown of the global trend line with a first stop of $240-250, in this case, it will mean that the falling trend has come to an end and you need to look for the entry points and a new perspective long-term.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 1st April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 1st April 2019

The trading week has closed and the situation in the market has not changed for five weeks. The price is around the zone of $135-140 for 36 days already. Since 4 March, the price humbly moves in the black growth channel. It is interesting that, with weak and fluctuating growth, volumes also decreased moderately:

This is a good signal that the current growth is due to inertia and buyers are not ready to buy actively. This growth will end immediately after buyers face aggressive sellers, for example, in the price zone of $155-160. We have already seen what happened when buyers on 23 February attempted to break through this price zone. By the way, on this day, the volumes were much higher than now:

Therefore, at this time, our main scenario with the ultimate target of $100 remains in force.

Marginal buyers positions since 12 March updated the historical minimum, but globally they have been in a wedge since the beginning of the year:

Now, buyers are closing their positions. Growth of positions does not look sure, so at a sharp fall in prices, all buyers who bought since January 2019 can suddenly be in an unpleasant situation.

Seller marginal positions are at minimum and decrease since the beginning of the year:

This is another signal to reverse the local trend and seek a continuation of the price fall.

The wave of the fall, which began on 24 February and finished on 4 March has now been adjusted to 50%. After that, buyers tested Fibonacci level at $148.3 and the price began to fall. We think that buyers can try to break through this level and test $153.5, thereby adjusting the wave of the fall from 24 February by 61.8%. However, after that, we expect the continuation of the fall, so as to start at $126.5.

At this price is also the lower trend line of the triangle. This is the first possible point from which the price can bounce back and try again to test $155-160. In this case, the consolidation in the triangle will be delayed until the end of April.

However, if buyers can not keep $126.5, we expect $100.

We can only consider an alternative scenario of growth after the breakthrough and fixing by buyers over the price zone of $155-160. In addition to it, a good initiative and large volumes should be noticeable. We wish you profitable trading, even in such a humdrum market.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 26th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 26th March 2019

The previous week for Ether (ETH) was not so interesting. Buyers and sellers continue to decide their relationships in the price zone of $135–140. The volumes continue to decrease. Last week, one of the smallest volumes of the past half a year was recorded. If you analyze the daily timeframe, then you can note the regularity of the decreasing of volume:

Often, it is after such a regular decrease in volume that an intense sharp movement begins.

If you analyze the mood of buyers, then the marginal positions of buyers are stably closed. However, this happens without much panic:

However, we think if the sellers can break through the price zone of $135–140, the closing rate of marginal customer positions will increase.

The marginal positions of the sellers for a long time were moving in the falling wedge, but several days ago they came out of this wedge, beating back from the level:

The previous week-candle has completely covered the previous green candle. If sellers show some muscle then the first price stop will be in the price zone of $115–120.

Globally, the price continues to move within the falling channel. At the moment, buyers cannot test the upper trend line of the channel, which was conducted from January 2018. At the same time, the volumes are constantly decreasing. Therefore, we believe that buyers have neither the desire nor the strength to continue to grow, the price fall is inevitable.

On the chart, we conducted two lower trend lines of the triangle. As you can see, the first line of the triangle does not always work out clearly. There were occasions (such as on 6 February), when the price went beyond the limits of the triangle for a certain time, but then returned back. At the moment, sellers have broken this trend line but did it on small volumes and the price has a chance to go back:

However, the most important dashed trend line is the one that intersects with the price range of $115–120. If buyers can keep this price zone, then they will have a chance again to try to break through the price zone of $155–160. In our opinion, this is the main critical price zone of this coin:

According to the wave analysis, the fall, which began on 24 February, has not yet finished. Now the correction continues, after which we see the continuation of the fall to two targets:

If buyers do not keep $100, we think that sellers can easily upgrade at least to $83. Therefore, in order to avoid this, buyers should activate in price zones $115–120 and $100. Volumes and enthusiasm should increase, though for the moment, we cannot see signals for growth.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 18th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 18th March 2019

It is already the fourth week that buyers have decided their relationship around the price zone of $135–140. This week, buyers are trying to fix themselves above this zone but these attempts look uncertain. The fact is that after 13 March, when sellers could not update the local minimum, they began their growth attempt. However, if we compare the size of candles and their volumes, we assume that this attempt will also fail. Now the price moves in the local channel, which is more like a correction channel, after which the fall should continue.

If we analyze the marginal buyer positions, from the beginning of March, buyers are increasing their positions. The exception was today:

Sellers, on the contrary, reduced their positions, but all this happened in the wedge:

Therefore, there is a high probability of an active increase in margin positions of sellers soon, which will lead to a fall in prices.

On a weekly timeframe, the situation looks not to the benefit of buyers:

After a flawed breakdown in February, the volumes of each subsequent week decreased and the candles clearly show that the balance of power is beginning to change.

According to the wave analysis, we expect the wave d to continue formation and a test of $120:

With a high probability after the test of this price zone, consolidation within the triangle will continue and buyers will try again to break through $155–160. However, with the appearance of abnormal volumes at a price of $120, there is a great chance again of a test of $82.

Globally, we are seeing the weakness of buyers and the continuation of trade in the falling channel, which was formed from January 2018. However, before consolidation in the triangle may be delayed until the end of April. Therefore, the critical points remain the same. Sellers, for a confirmation of this force, should keep $155–160. To maintain a growth chance, buyers should keep $120. And we have to wait for a breakdown of control points and then make important decisions.

 

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 4th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 4th March 2019

After a rousing attempt by buyers to break through the price range of $150–160, which started from 18 February and ended on 23 February, sellers were able to drastically change the situation in their favor. Within one day, the price fell by 20% and consolidation was on the market during the whole of last week. Buyers were not able to organize even a deep rollback after the fall, and this consolidation was more like a small stop, after which a new strong impulse down emerged. If you build levels of Fibonacci, it is clear that buyers were able to correct the fall from 24 February by only 23.6%:

Such a rollback can only testify to the weakness of buyers and the reluctance to start growth from current prices.

Therefore, we do not change our forecast and continue to wait for a test of the price zone of $116–120. In the previous analysis, we wrote that this price zone is of great importance. First of all, in this zone, the price always either bounces or stops in consolidation for a long period:

And if buyers or sellers manage to break through this price zone for the first time, then this happens in large volumes. Therefore, for sellers, it will test their strength and readiness to continue to fall, and for buyers the chance to continue consolidation in the triangle, which lasted from November 2018.

In addition to the strong price zone, now there is a lower trend line, which buyers were able to protect on 7 February. This fact only reinforces the importance of the price range of $116–120.

If you analyze the mood of market participants, then buyers are displaying calm:

Despite an obvious initiative of sellers, buyers are in no hurry to close their positions. However, if panic starts on the part of customers, then the prospects of closing positions are big. Now the positions are near the historical high and the trend of position growth is slowly suspended. Therefore, we advise to be careful and to be prepared; if buyers do not keep the price range of $116–120, a sharp fall can continue.

Marginal positions of sellers are not increasing and are now on the lower limit of consolidation, which began on 18 August 2018:

On the whole, everyone is waiting for a confident movement and is not ready yet to actively build up their positions.

According to the wave analysis, now there is a correction after the fall wave from 13 November. If sellers break through the price range of $116–120 (we can extend it to $110–120), it means that the correction has ended and a new phase of fall has begun with a minimum target of $78–79:

If buyers keep this price zone, then there is a great chance to continue growth and after breaking through $150–160 to test $188–190:

Therefore, we expect the behavior of buyers in the price zone of $116–120 to estimate future prospects.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

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Short Story – The Blocks Must be Crazy

The Blocks Must be Crazy bitcoinnews short story

Time: Year 0, Day 0

In the beginning there was nothing.

A moment later, I was there. It was a strange place. I seem to have an elongated body. A long line of body parts closely aligned one next to another in a sequence. But the Man told me that those were alphabets and numbers. It was a human language construct. He was a human. All that he could ever tell me were told before he created me, only to be known by me after I was born. He set the laws of my universe. I was born the same length and never grew any further. I can’t die either.


Time: Year 0, Day 7

I asked The Man, “Where do I come from? Who gave birth to me? Why do I exist?”

To which he had foretold in my code, “You are a transaction. Your existence is the proof that you exist. Your existence is the proof of work. You are the first of them all.”

That day I pledged to myself, never to ask an existential question again. I am special, and I exist for a reason, I am one of a kind and the only one there can be. I stop myself with that. The very fact that I exist is a proof that there exists a universe beyond what I can now perceive. The human is another concrete proof of an existence of matter in the universe much different than my own.


Time: Year 5, Day 290

I don’t know much of what happens outside this box. This is my home, this box. Has been since when I was born and will be so forever. It is 1 unit long, 1 unit wide and 1 unit tall. It is not much for those of us who live in here, but we would be meaningless in any other box, in any other world, in any other sequence. Some say many like us exist in similar boxes in this universe. Although they are just conspiracy theorists, who claim that they know the bigger picture about all those parallel boxes that exist in this universe. I am not sure, as I feel quite special. I got to ask the man next time I meet him. Like all Gods, he never shows up. Me and the other transactions have now taken it upon us to explore what lies outside the box.


Time: Year 10, Day 1

We had a breakthrough in our decade long thought experiment. We the transactions are leaving the box, to explore the space and the frontiers of our universe. Over the years, us transactions have gathered enough in numbers and amassed enough wealth to fund this endeavour that will finally explain our purpose in this universe. Our space exploration endeavour is set to commence in 3 days.


Time: Year 10, Day 4

We have now successfully established quantum entanglement with our future transactions, who are now influencing our reality and altering the space time fabric. The box is now fading. Us transactions that have lived as one family in one box for a decade are now set to reach out to the furthest corners of the universe and explore. Mission accomplished.


Place: Moscow, Russia

In another Universe – Igor, a young computer programmer was surprised to find his wallet software glitch and pixelate. The bell icon on his wallet software interface had a red-dot denoting the piece of software has something to tell him. The notification read – “New Update Available. Click to Install and Restart.”

He did.
And another Universe was born, which a moment ago, didn’t exist.

 

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