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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 1st, 2020

  • The new 2020 year began with no surprises in Bitcoin market.
  • December 2019 closed without much enthusiasm for the fall continuation.
  • January is a chance for buyers to test and fix higher $7,920.

Here comes the new 2020, which for many is a symbol of hope for new financial achievements and achievements in Bitcoin market. The year 2019 is schematically divided into two equal parts. For the first half of the year, Bitcoin market has grown steadily and buyers have managed to test the closing price of month candle of December 2017. The next half year we saw a prolonged and tedious correction, during which the movement and volumes were less aggressive than during Bitcoin price growth. On the eve of the new year, Bitcoin market has not prepared any surprises.

The month candle closed below the critical price zone $7,550-7,800.

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 1st, 2020

However, sellers don’t feel inspired by this candle at all. Pay attention that with identical trading volumes for the month, candles look completely different. The impression is that the continuation of the fall is not possible without a quality test of the price zone $7,550-7,800 on the monthly timeframe.

The barely noticeable local low update is another fact that large volumes are needed to continue falling. In order to accelerate the fall and exit from the black channel of price movement.

If we analyze buyers’ marginal positions during the year, we see that buyers started to increase their margins 2 months before the growth of Bitcoin price:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 1st, 2020

From February to April, buyers began to record profits, closing their margins. Beginning from May 2019, on the chart of buyers’ marginal positions was formed consolidation. It ended with breakthrough up in November. It seems that buyers are preparing for a new wave of growth, during which they will again close their margins. Also worth noting is the fact that during the uncertain movement of Bitcoin price, buyers have so confidently increased their margins that they updated the historical high.

As for sellers, the situation with their marginal positions is the opposite:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 1st, 2020

Throughout the year, sellers have closed their marginal positions, updating the historical low. The bulk of the marginal positions was closed during the reversal and the first wave of the fall, starting from June 2019. Thus, with each local low update, sellers only reduce their positions. Thereby, they indicate the likely end of the fall in Bitcoin market.

According to the wave analysis, sellers cannot fix below the Fibonacci level 50% for the second time:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 1st, 2020

In the coming month, buyers will try to test and fix above the level of Fibonacci 0.382, which passes at the price mark $7,920. If buyers fix above this mark, they will have great prospects for continued growth. We will discuss it in the following analyzes. We wish you the new year 2020 be more productive and energetic. Meet you tomorrow on a daily analysis of Bitcoin market!

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

  • Buyers were able to retest the price zone $7,550-7,800.
  • Consolidation in the range $7,060-7,650 continues.
  • There are a large number of sellers on the market which will not allow easy growth of Bitcoin price.

Yesterday’s trading day on Bitcoin market ended with a test of the price range $7,550-7,800. During the day, Bitcoin price was in the range of 3%. Looking at the candles on the 4-hour timeframe, you can see that buyers were moving to the yellow range confidently enough. However, the volume of trades remained consolidating during the growth. It is due to the low liquidity of the range, which is below the price mark $7,550.

As soon as buyers touched the liquidity, they immediately collapsed seller volumes, which lowered Bitcoin price by 2% in one hour:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

As we see, there are a lot sellers on the market and consolidation in the range $7,060-7,650 is very likely to continue. However, sellers have not yet reversed the local growing trend and as long as buyers keep $7,325, this attack is not finished. This price mark is not considered as global critical point, but the chart shows that during the day Bitcoin price stopped in consolidation. Yesterday, at this mark buyers found the strength to stop aggressive counter-attack from sellers.

Yesterday is almost invisible on the chart of marginal positions of buyers:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

The activity on the chart of sellers’ marginal positions is also not very different:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

In general, the weekly candle closed as expected and without surprises. This time, sellers were not so confident about the week and left the big pin down. Nevertheless, Bitcoin price continues to be below the yellow range. And it continues to prove the dominance of sellers in the market.

As we wrote in previous analyses, time is working in sellers’ favor. Therefore, buyers need to change things immediately, fixing themselves over $7,800. In this case, $5,550 is the objective target of continuing to fall after 5 weeks of consolidation.

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis December 30th, 2019

According to the wave analysis, the situation remains unchanged. Bitcoin price continues to trade between the two levels of Fibonacci which are limits of consolidation.

Ahead of the provocative two days before the close of the month and year of trading in Bitcoin market. Let’s see if the big players have planned a provocation these days. Tomorrow, we will analyze whether buyers will continue their attack with the target to fix above $7,800.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

  • The 5-week consolidation of Bitcoin price continues.
  • During the week, both buyers and sellers tried to get out of the consolidation range $7,060-7,650.
  • As long as the price is below the range $7,500-7800, the advantage remains on the sellers’ side.

The trading week on Bitcoin market ends with no major changes. Throughout the week, Bitcoin price moved in the 7% range within the consolidation range $7,060-7,650. A week has begun with buyers’ attempt to move beyond the consolidation range. The attempt was well-grounded, as the previous week candle closed pretty favorably for buyers’ attack. However, a false breakthrough and a sharp counter-attack from sellers is the final result of buyers’ attempt to go beyond $7,650.

Sellers also failed to break through the bottom line of consolidation. So locally, Bitcoin price has continued to be in the consolidation range for 5 weeks. Globally, after breaking through the critical price range $7,550-7,800, sellers do not allow price closure within 5 weeks even within this range. It speaks about sellers control of the market situation and the likely exhaustion of buyers before the fall continuation.

In previous analyses, we wrote that time is not working for the benefit of buyers. To change the situation, buyers had to fix themselves above $7,800 this week. Although, buyers do not have the initiative and the chance to continue falling is much higher.

The trading volumes this week also showed no significant changes. Bitcoin market has stopped and is preparing for the next move.

Marginal positions of buyers this week decreased:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

A significant decrease in the margins of buyers occurred yesterday. Moreover, this decrease lasted only for 1 hour:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

Analyzing what happened with Bitcoin price at this time, we can see that sellers on increased volumes tried to sell the price down on buyer limit orders:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

The volume during this battle was big. It is likely that buyers who increased their positions during the month found the opportunity to close their part without significantly lowering the price.

During the week, sellers tried to increase their marginal positions. However, at a time when buyers have sharply reduced their marginal positions, sellers have also decided not to stand out:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

According to the wave analysis, Bitcoin price continues to drift between the two levels of Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618, which formed a consolidation range:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 29th December 2019

When the mark $7,060 is broken, sellers will continue their movement to $5,550. With a breakthrough of $7,650, the next buyer stop is at $8,200. See you in the first week of the new year!

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

  • Unsuccessful attempt of sellers to test $7,060 gave the chance to buyers to test again $7,550-7,800.
  • Buyers again easily found themselves near the local range $7,255-7,300 and did not feel resistance to it.
  • In case of the price fixing above $7,800, we expect to continue growing to $8,600-9,000.

Today was an interesting trading day on Bitcoin market. Certainly, not so interesting if the trend began, but the clear preference of sellers after today’s attempt to lower the price has dissipated. In the previous analysis, we noticed that after uncertain attack of buyers, which ended on 26 December with a false breakdown of the blue price zone $7,260-7,300, sellers became more active. The first stop of the price was estimated at $7,060. However, for the second time, buyers do not allow Bitcoin price to fall to this mark, stopping movement at the mark $7,113.

Sellers lacked the strength to impose their game globally. It means that buyers’ chance again to test $7,550-7,800 has increased significantly. As we can see on the 4-hour time frame, buyers started well and with one candle got to the local blue range. The next candle showed that there is no special resistance in the range and the continuation of growth probably will be:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

Therefore, the last weekend this year can be quite intense.

Looking at the daily time frame, after today’s unsuccessful fall attempt, buyers will try to build a turning figure at the critical point $7,800:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

So, after fixing above $7,800, the way to $8,600-9,000 is open. As for forecasting more global targets, buyers need to get out of the black falling channel, in which Bitcoin price continues to trade since June 2019.

Already today, marginal positions of buyers have stopped their decrease and are trying to continue their growth:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

Sellers are also beginning to gain positive mood and have been increasing their marginal positions for 4 days now:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

Also, on the daily time frame, we noticed the interesting fact that before the start of a new local growth wave sellers test or try to test the trend line twice:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 28th December 2019

Let’s see if such a pattern works for the third time. If so, we should expect a rather sharp jump in growth.

According to the wave analysis, as we see the situation without changes. Bitcoin price continues to move between the two levels of Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618.

Already on the weekend we will see whether the current buyers initiative will be able to release the market from consolidation or keep investors strained. Well, the New year is coming, it’s miracle time! We just want these miracles to be nice to us!

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

  • Buyers have made an unsuccessful attempt of Bitcoin price growth to the range $7550-7800.
  • Buyers need much larger volumes for growth than for price fall.
  • Globally, the price continues to be in consolidation between the two levels of Fibonacci $7060-7650.

On Thursday, the trading in Bitcoin market ended with a not quite successful attempt by buyers to organize a local growth trend. In general, the movement of Bitcoin price was about 4% yesterday. However, the closing price of the daily candle is only 0.3% higher than the opening price. It indicates that there are a large number of sellers on the market who will not give up without a fight.

The 4-hour timeframe shows how high volume buyers started their attack on the blue local range. During the next candle sellers easily returned the price back.

However, please note that sellers need less effort than buyers to stabilize the situation:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Pay attention that after sellers stabilized the situation and returned Bitcoin price below the blue range, buyers made another growth attempt. Although, this 4-hour candle looks much smaller than seller’s candle. Note that the volumes of these two candles are practically the same. It suggests that sellers will soon start a new wave of fall, completely exhausting buyers and again testing $7060 at least.

The daily timeframe shows a marked slowdown of Bitcoin price fall over the last 3 days. Yesterday, although it did not look completely in favor of buyers, but sellers failed to update the local low and were bound to defend themselves. If today’s candle closes above $7290, it means that yesterday’s 4% growth was the start of the price reversal and the test of $7800 will still be relevant.

With regard to the marginal positions of buyers, in recent days buyers have cooled concerning theeir increase:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

However, the chart does not show much desire to reduce positions and buyers expect the growth continuation.

Sellers, on the contrary, increase their marginal positions within 4 days. However, they do it in uncertain means in relation to how positions were reduced in panic:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Globally, the situation in Bitcoin market in the wave analysis has not changed. Consolidation between the two important levels of Fibonacci continues:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 27th December 2019

Locally, yesterday’s growth corrected the last wave of the fall from 23 December by almost 61.8%. Let’s see if sellers can use their yesterday’s gains over the weekend and continue the fall to $7060 with the next target $6400.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

  • Sellers are trying to fix below the local price range $7120-7200.
  • At the hourly timeframe buyers’ attempts to counter-attack seem sluggish and without volumes.
  • If Bitcoin price fixes below $7060, the global target for sellers will be $5550.

On Christmas Day, there was no miracle in Bitcoin market. Taking advantage of the small trading volumes, sellers decided to try to continue their fall and fix below the local blue price range $7120-7200. In the previous analysis, we wrote that after consolidation in this range, buyers managed to test Bitcoin price zone $7550-7800.

Therefore, the current blue range test should show us whether buyers are willing to keep the price and do another attempt to break through $7550-7800. At the 4-hour timeframe, we see that the current attempt to continue the fall ends with a large pin. However, looking at the hourly timeframe, we see that the aggression from buyers is not visible further:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

After the red candle on high volumes, buyers are trying rather slowly to create a counterattack. Each subsequent buyers candle closes in smaller volumes than the previous one. Therefore, despite the uncertain closing of the 4-hour candle from sellers side only mean temporary weakness. Another attempt to break through the price zone $7120-7200 is probably.

We see a significant decrease in trading volumes on the daily timeframe. But we think it is because of today’s holiday. That’s why, we will concider tomorrow’s price and volume movements as a basis.

Marginal buyers’ positions have gone beyond local consolidation limits and have decreased today:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

For the time being, it does not seem to be a panic. But let’s see how buyers will react to the aggressive fall of Bitcoin price.

Sellers have partially increased their marginal positions. Although it does not look as significant as a decrease of buyers’ positions:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

Sellers managed to correct the growth of Bitcoin price from 18 December by 38.2%. Sellers are now trying to fix below this Fibonacci level to continue moving to the next one at the mark $7060:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 25th December 2019

Globally, the situation on the wave analysis in Bitcoin market remains unchanged for 5 weeks. The price moves between the two levels and in case of breaking $7060 sellers will be able to continue falling to $5550. As long as the price is below $7550-7800, the advantage remains on sellers side. Let’s see tomorrow if buyers can catch up for what they have lost today.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

  • An unsuccessful attempt of buyers to break through $7550-7800 provoked sellers to counterattack.
  • Bitcoin price fall has stopped in the range of previous local consolidation.
  • If buyers fail to fix above $7550-7800 this week the target $5550 will again be relevant.

Yesterday’s trading day on Bitcoin market ended with a sharp price fall. The foothold prepared by buyers in the form of opening price of daily candle at the mark $7535 did not help to fix above $7550-7800. As you can see in the chart, the daily candle closed below the opening price. Today, sellers have continued their local attack. After buyers touched the yellow range $7550-7800, trading volumes increased. On the hourly timeframe it is noticeable that as Bitcoin price approaches the yellow range, volumes increase substantially, both as they grow and fall:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Now the price has stopped above the previous zone of local consolidation and in fact sellers are checking buyers for the strength. For now, buyers manage to contain this attack. If today’s and tomorrow’s candles are successfully closing, we will make another attempt to break through $7550-7800:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

Margins of buyers continue to be in consolidation after lightning fast growth:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

The situation regarding sellers’ marginal positions continues to worsen. Even during today’s Bitcoin price fall, sellers have not been able to systematically increase their marginal positions:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

At the price mark $7500 sellers had a good support for a good trade, also reduced their marginal positions.

Therefore, the mood in the market is still more conducive to continued growth.

At the weekly timeframe, we see that for 5 weeks, buyers are unable to regain control of $7550-7800:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

After the triumphant closing of the previous week’s candle, buyers still have all the trumps to try to break the yellow range. However, it’s worth doing this week. Closing a weekly candle below $7550 in general will look to the benefit of sellers who professionally keep an important price range.

According to the wave analysis, we see that the correction of the fall wave from 28 October does not cross the level of Fibonacci 38.2%:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 24th December 2019

If this level of Fibonacci is broken, the next target will be $8600-8700. Let’s see what buyers will be able to do tomorrow. And whether they will have the power to prevent of the price fall continuation to the global target $5550.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

  • Buyers tested an important price range at $7,550-7,800 without waiting for new week.
  • Trading volumes during the current growth are lower than during the previous one.
  • If Bitcoin price will fix above $7,740, the next target is $8,600.

Yesterday’s trading day on Bitcoin market ended with a breakdown of the consolidation corridor and the test of the important Bitcoin price range $7,550-7,800. Buyers decided not to wait for the start of next week and continued their local attack, perfectly closing the week candle. As we can see on the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin price growth was on increased volumes.

However, all in comparison. If you look at the volumes of consolidation and compare them with the volumes during the price growth, then the volumes look really increased. Although when comparing the current growth volumes with the growth volumes from 18 December, it becomes clear that the current attack looks a little weaker:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

If buyers do not increase the degree of their aggression along with the volumes, then we are waiting for further consolidation between the price marks $6,800-7,800.

Continuation of Bitcoin price consolidation in this range is more beneficial to sellers than buyers. Please note what happened with the price at the first meeting with the range $7,550-7,800:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

Initially, buyers controlled and after a false breakdown, there was a sharp price growth. Sellers are now showing us that this price zone is now under their control. And to deny this information buyers need to fix above this range as soon as possible.

Marginal positions of buyers continue to be in consolidation and have not reacted to the test of $7,550-7,800.

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

Sellers have again updated the historical low and continue to close their marginal positions. It is strange that sellers do not try to enter the position and do not consider the price range $7,550-7,800 as a support for another attempt to fall. It indicates their uncertainty at the moment:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

According to the wave analysis now the correction wave is continuing its formation. It has so far corrected the fall wave from 28 October by 38.2%:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 23rd December 2019

If wave (c) is able to continue its formation above $7740, then the final growth target is $8,600. Let’s see if buyers can fix themselves above the price range $7,550-7,800 this week. Tomorrow, we will see the first results of the test of this range.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

  • Buyers successfully fix above the local range $7,120-7,200.
  • The minimum target of next week is a test of $7,800.
  • The global target of the new likely growth trend is a test of the black channel’s upper trend line at the mark $8,900.

The third day of trading in Bitcoin market continues in the narrow 1% range. The fight for the local Bitcoin price zone $7,120-7,200 continues. Buyers are trying to strengthen their position before new growth. The absence of aggressive attempts by sellers to change the situation and lower the price below the locally important range confirms our scenario of the growth continuation. Therefore, we believe that next week should be effective for buyers, as there are no restraining forces in this price range for sellers.

The 4-hour timeframe is a barely noticeable triangle in which the trading range is sufficient until 23 December:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

Therefore, the vector movement of Bitcoin price of awaits us from Monday.

In general, the weekly candle closed positively for buyers, leaving a big false breakdown at the price mark $7,060:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

As we can see, sellers managed to capture the yellow price zone $7,550-7,800 and keep it, but the continuation of the attack ended miserably. Therefore, a new attempt of the test of $7,550-7,800 should be completed next week. This week has shown the exhaustion of sellers. Despite the loss of an important price zone, buyers still have a desire to slow down and break the falling trend.

Buyers’ marginal positions ceased to grow rapidly, but did not start to decrease:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

Sellers continue to close their marginal positions, showing uncertainty.

According to the wave analysis, the situation remains the same. This week, sellers were able to test Fibonacci level 0.382. The wave of fall from June 2019 in proportions has 38.2% of the wavelength of the fall wave in 2018:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 22nd December 2019

Given the volumes with which sellers have been trying to pass this critical point, a local price reversal with a final target $8,900; this remains the main scenario. However, globally the price will continue to move in the black falling channel. Therefore, we expect next week whether buyers will cope with $7,550-7,800 and whether they will have strength for breakdown and change of the black trend fall.

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Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

  • Bitcoin price continues to trade in the range of 1%.
  • Sellers’ attempt to lower the price below the range $7120-7200 was unsuccessful.
  •  If buyers fix over the price mark $7200, their next local target will be $7800.

Today, the last day of the working week in Bitcoin market, buyers continue to fix over the local price range $7120-7200. Sellers tried to lower Bitcoin price below the blue range, but faced limit orders of buyers and retreated. This situation reveals two facts:

  1. Sellers are not ready to back down and try to keep the initiative in the market.
  2. Buyers are ready to keep their positions and the sharp growth from 18 December was not an emotional euphoria.

However, continue to grow when in the market are so many sellers is wrong and it requires a big volume. Therefore, continuation of consolidation by the end of the week is a fairly realistic scenario, in our opinion.

If you look at the situation on Bitcoin market on a small 15-minute timeframe, we can see the emissions of sellers volumes:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

The first outburst of volume is noticeable after buyers attempt to move beyond the price range $7120-7200. This volume is supported by an aggressive candle. However, sellers did not continue the attack. With the second volume outburst, the candle of sellers is not noticeable, while the volumes appear big. It seems that buyers are gaining position in this price zone, forcing sellers for growth continuation.

Marginal positions of buyers finally stopped increasing:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

This fact indicates that some buyers begin to record their profits and the other continues to increase positions. Let’s see how buyers will react as Bitcoin price continues to grow.

Sellers have buried their prospect of increasing margins over the last 3 days:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

It is due to a set of positions during the fall and panic during a sharp growth. Pay attention that most sellers positions have decreased today, when the price is trading in the 1% range.

According to wave analysis, it is quite possible that the wave (Y) has completed its formation:

Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis 20th December 2019

As we can see, wave (c), which is part of wave structure (Y), could not fix below 0.382, after which there was a sharp price growth.

Therefore, we continue to expect price movements in the global blue falling channel with a global target $8500. However, before buyers expect a critical point $7800. Let’s see if buyers can revive the market earlier than next week.

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