We are now only three hours away at 5:15 pm Shanghai time (9:15 am UTC) from Bitcoin recording a full 24 hours above USD 7,700, with price remaining surprisingly stable on the Thanksgiving weekend. After recording a high at USD 7,856 (CoinDesk), bulls look poised for a further breakout above the USD 8,000 resistance level.
One of the biggest news to chew on for the weekend is the revelation of a new EUR 110 million fund launched by the European Union for blockchain and artificial intelligence (AI) research. The EU is hoping to capitalize on a time when the AI and blockchain industries are causing a lot of debate centered on issues of privacy and security.
Central to some of these arguments is how these innovations will deal with data, since with AI especially, there is a potential to create models that exert control over data and reward people for giving away that data. But control and governance of that data in an age of heightened privacy rights and the General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR) mean that there are several technical issues that should be addressed first before deploying such technologies.
CoinTelegraph’s Ben Goertzel, however, asks:
“The question isn’t whether this funding program is timely and important, the question is whether it’s anywhere near enough. In this light, the potential for the funding to be increased up to EUR 2 billion in 2021 is even more interesting news.”
Goertzel points out that the AI industry in the developed West, like many other tech monopolies, lies in the hands of a corporate few, who have climbed to their positions of power by providing “free” or discounted services to users in exchange for their data. Users, as it turns out, care less for privacy than they do about being renumerated for their personal data.
These giant corporates have used the data to teach AI systems to build “unprecedentedly effective advertising machines, with extraordinary capabilities of using the patterns mined from personal data to influence peoples’ decisions about purchasing, political elections or anything else”. We all know about the Facebook scandal involving selling data to third parties, who appear to have found a way to win elections across the world with that data, swaying voters via ads.
But one should not also discount the growing tech conglomerates in the Far East, where connections between Chinese tech companies and the China central government are often publicly known and fully acknowledged. In one episode of the Talkonomics podcast, Silicon Valley Blockchain Society founder Amit Pradhan warns of the GAFABATT “mega monsters of data” (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Tesla), and talks about the responsibility of tech leaders to build ethical designs with blockchain and AI.
In any case, even if the future does not interest you as a speculator, then you should definitely sit up and take notice of this one piece of news that predicts Bitcoin is statistically very likely to record even more gains in the first week of December, given that a new Bitcoin futures expiration is about to enter into view.
Next $BTC CME expiration is on Friday 11/29.
I charted out price returns before & after expiration since the contracts started trading.
Takeaway: Generally experience selling pressure before and positive returns after. pic.twitter.com/bK6gp2h4sH
— Luke Martin (@VentureCoinist) November 25, 2019
Trader and crypto analyst Luke Martin has compiled new data that charts the performance of Bitcoin right before and right after each expiration events. The results show higher levels at each event’s collision. Using CME Group’s monthly Bitcoin futures expiration as a basis, he has almost two years’ worth of data to compile, since it launched in December 2017.
Digging deeper, he saw how Bitcoin investors would see negative returns one week before those futures contracts expired, but they would actually give a positive return the following week. This happened with 73% of all the contract expiries. He summarized:
“Takeaway: Generally experience selling pressure before and positive returns after.”
In the weeks that returns were negative, in the final week of November 2018, the price fell by 1% before expiration and then tumbled 18% a week after, but this was during the intense bull period where that month was also the lowest crypto has experienced since 2017.
On average, notes Martin, investors see positive post-settlement returns, and even more so the week after. Buy the dip before expiry and scalp the profits a week after? Perhaps.
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