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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 17th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 17th March 2019

Buyers are approaching the liquid zone, in which sellers with great desire begin to sell. When the price touched the trend line, the volumes increased and the pins appeared. Also, this price zone coincides with the upper trend line of the triangle, where the price is traded from November 2018.

One more week ended where the buyers decided to check the strength of the sellers. The whole week, the price was traded under the level of $3,988 and buyers did not have enough strength to stay above this level. However, the sellers did not try to continue to fall. From Friday, buyers still managed to break through the local level and test the upper trend line of the triangle. How did this happen?

The breakdown of the level was on small volumes. After the breakthrough, the sellers did not try to bring this level under control. It is perfectly visible on the volumes of a red candle below the price of $3,988:

This fact seems suspicious to us, since buyers have not been able to break through this level for a whole month, and on 15 March, they have made it without obstacles.

The main volume of this week was recorded on 16 March in the process of testing the upper trend line of the triangle. Let’s consider the situation on the 15-minute timeframe:

The increased volumes did not give the final result to buyers and the trend line was not broken. Also, taking into account the pins on increased volumes, we can conclude that most of these volumes were formed by sellers who locally unrolled the price from the trend line.

Therefore, given the nature of the movement and the quantity of volumes this week, we think that the probability of breaking the triangle upwards and continuation of a strong rapid growth remains unlikely.

If we analyze how, during four months starting from November, buyers are trying to build their attacks, it becomes clear that every subsequent attack grows weaker:

Pay attention, how aggressiveness and volumes are decreasing during each growth attempt. The impression is that sellers are simply exhausting buyers before a new fall wave.

This is another fact in favor of sellers.

Marginal positions of buyers decreased this week. However, at the moment of the test of the trend line, the buyers believed in the chance of breaking the triangle up and began to open their positions emotionally, after which it would be equally emotional to close them:

Sellers have been increasing their positions for the second week in succession. This happens on the growth of the coin. This testifies to their confidence that the fall will still continue:

According to the wave analysis, globally, the wave Y continues to form now. At the price of $4,360, the wave W = Y * 0.5. Now the price is under this level. And if buyers can not break through this price, then the global prospect of continuing the fall will be up to $2,650:

Therefore, until buyers aren’t acting with increased volumes and a positive mood, we will not believe in the future of the change in the annual fall trend and in the best case, expect the continuation of consolidation within the triangle maximum until the beginning of April.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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Coinbase Moves with Cold Storage Trading via Custody Service, OTC Desk

Coinbase Moves with Cold Storage Trading via Custody Service, OTC Desk

US cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase has just announced that it plans to combine its custody service with its newly launched over-the-counter (OTC) desk in order to facilitate cold storage trading.

The move is partly a response to requests by Coinbase customers who have been pushing for cold storage trading since the recent launch of the OTC desk, mainly in order to sidestep the additional movement of client funds online before they can be traded.

Coinbase launched its OTC cryptocurrency trading desk at the end of 2018 again reacting to “client demand”, as well as gearing towards broadening its customer base to include more institutional clients. Its cryptocurrency custody was launched in July of 2018 for much the same reason in order to attract large financial organizations to the exchange.

The new cold storage trading facility promises to a route to the future of trading according to Sam McIngvale, the CEO of Coinbase Custody, who sees this as “the defacto way to trade”. However, the newly-announced feature rather follows in the footsteps of blockchain security company BitGo who already launched their own custody trading product earlier this year.

There are those that feel that Coinbase Custody could be far better than BitGo for this simplified trading process, due to its pull on larger institutional clients; a potential client base which has firmly been in the San Francisco-based exchange’s sights for some time. John McAfee is one who has long viewed this client pool as a future crypto industry game changer; long predicted maybe, but as yet still yet to become reality.

Institutional investors are preparing to enter the cryptocurrency market with a vengeance. They are generally long term investors and will be pumping billions into the market. Expect the top ten coins to go through the roof fairly quickly. The bulk of alt coins will soon follow.

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) May 21, 2018

This won’t stop Coinbase trying though, and cold storage trading is another step down that road.

 

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 15th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 15th March 2019

Trading began at a price of $3,945 from 14 March, and the price closed at $3,948 at the end of the day. However, during the day, the price was moving in the range of 3.5%. The most interesting thing is that the main price movement took place within one hour, and if to be more accurate then during two 15-minute candles:

Buyers tried again to break through the black triangle, in which the price was traded from 9 March, after which they got a resolute response from sellers, also on the raised volume. After this battle, the price in the usual mode continued its movement without volumes. So, we can conclude that during the attempt to break through $3,988, sellers are activated and sharply lower the price.

However, sellers do not fully realize their counterattack and give a new chance to buyers. This behavior of sellers means that they are not ready to continue to fall either because of weakness or because they have not cleared the way for the buyer for the next fall.

What happened to the marginal positions of market participants?

The positions of buyers sharply decreased this very hour when sellers sharply responded to buyers in their attempt to grow:

Most likely, the market stop-loss of buyers who were inserted below the low trend line of the triangle, and since the market is now without volumes, sellers did not need much effort to provoke this situation.

Seller margin positions also decreased in the hour of greatest activity on 14 March but after this situation, sellers began to increase their positions. Now the position of sellers is in the triangle from 9 March.

Globally, after buyers attempted to break through and fix over $3,988, sellers lowered the price below this level and are still undergoing consolidation under the level. All attempts by buyers to change the situation are not successful yet. In our opinion, every flawed buyer’s breakdown shows their weakness and if buyers cannot hold themselves above the $3,988 level after several attempts, sellers will continue their sharp fall as a first step to $3,870.

If buyers will be able to fix themselves above $3,988, the next target price zone is $4,200–4,300. As we wrote in the previous analyses, for us, this price zone is considered critical, since sellers protect it reliably from November 2018. Yesterday’s hourly activity of market participants, on a daily timeframe, is not even noticeable and did not bring any clarity on the market, except for emotions.

What will be next? If you take a closer look at the triangle in which the price is traded from November, one can observe that the low trend line can be drawn in a different way. In this case, the price stayed outside the triangle for about 10 days, starting from 28 January but turned sharply into the triangle on 8 February, and buyers are already protecting this line for the third time. In this case, this consolidation can be delayed by the beginning of April, after which there will be a powerful and sharp exit from the triangle and, in our opinion, down.

Therefore, it should not be a long period to enjoy the consolidation. We will discuss global targets and scenarios of the price movement in the weekly market analysis.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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Crypto the Movie Now Due for 12th April Release

Crypto the Movie Now Due for 12th April Release

With the current rise of cryptocurrency, people are finding new ways to exploit the financial system and the global economy. After discovering evidence of fraud, a young US government agent named Martin is tasked with following a long trail of corruption and theft. During his investigation, he finds that the people involved are more powerful than he could have ever imagined, and have become skilled in the use of cryptocurrency.

This is the plot of the latest “crypto on film” development. The much-awaited film, Crypto, starring Kurt Russell, has finally arrived; the trailer is out, and the big screen depiction of the wonderful ups and downs of a nascent industry taking the financial world by storm is due for release on 12 April.

Of course, all should be taken with just a grain of salt, and it’s all simply good fun. How much the script bears up in terms of verisimilitude to actual cryptocurrency world is left for others to comment. How likely criminals are to leave files clearly marked “Kickbacks” is also left for compliance officers to comment on.

An anti-money laundering expert’s trip to small-town America and a subsequent run-in with the Russian mob is the basic meat and bones on which the plot is hung upon with Kurt Russell in the central role.

The movie world still awaits another crypto project starring Michael Keaton a film about the life of controversial crypto advocate John McAfee, the man who made millions creating antivirus software. It appears that Johnny Depp was the original choice, but was fired before the Birdman star was drafted in to play.

 

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 12th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 12th March 2019

Buyers were still unable to fix above $4,000 and to try and satisfy the price zone of $4,200–4,300. Since 6 March, the price stopped at around $4,000, and all attempts to break through and fix over this price were sluggish and with small volumes. We would like to see a sure breakthrough of this price and keeping it on increased volumes to prove that buyers have the power to keep the price up and continue to grow. However, since yesterday, buyers have not particularly been trying to counteract sellers with their increasing volumes:

As far back as 8 March was a signal that buyers did not have enough strength and a desire to keep the price. After many growth candles on a 4-hour timeframe, starting from 5 March, sellers were able to lower the price by 4% with the help of one candle. It was the first signal of weakness.

The margin positions of buyers continue to close. On a daily timeframe, it is clear that now buyer positions have reached the low trend line, which runs from September 2017, and there is a high probability that we will see a rebound from this trend line:

However, sellers also do not look sufficiently confident. The positions of sellers increased all the time when the price was around $4,000. However, at the moment, the position has ceased to increase and, in our opinion, the lower the price will be, the more closed positions will happen. Sellers will fix profits from the short-term trend:

Proceeding from this, the market continues consolidation in the range of $3,770–4,000, and now we are reflected from the upper limit of consolidation and intend to test the bottom. Since this consolidation arose after a sharp fall from 24 February and buyers could not fix above $4,000 for three weeks, we continue to think that the initiative and advantage are on the side of sellers and we believe that this consolidation is more likely to go down with the first stop of $3,670–3,700 and the final $3,500–3,550.

All buyers attempts to grow can be placed in the price channel. Now sellers are trying to fix below this channel and finally break the short-term growth:

The 4-hour chart shows that after breaking through the low trend line of the channel, buyers are not particularly trying to get the price back.

According to the wave analysis, now the formation ends after the fall from 24 February (wave b). Therefore, we expect another wave of fall (wave c), which at the price of $3,550 will be equal to the wave a:

Of course, the current rollback can continue and buyers will renew movement in their channel, but by analyzing the volumes and candles of buyers, we expect the continuation of the fall with the ultimate goal of $3,500–3,550, where we will analyze probable prospects.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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Ethereum Market Analysis: 10th March 2019

During the past week, buyers tried to break the situation on the market and did not allow sellers to test the price zone of USD 115-USD 120, about which we wrote in the previous analysis. On 5 March, buyers with the help of one day candle crossed all attempts by sellers, which lasted three days, continuing the fall:

Interestingly, sellers without much volume broke the price zone of USD 135-USD 140, although, on 24 February they did not manage to pass this point even in large volumes. However, after breaking the price zone down the buyers also on small volumes turned the price back and at the moment buyers and sellers decided their relationship in the price corridor of USD 135-USD 140.

However, the price zone of USD 135-USD 140 is not too important to focus on. If you look at a short history, the price stops around this price zone, but does not unfold:

Therefore, for us, the key price zones are USD 155-USD 160 (the key area for sellers) and USD 115-USD 120 (the key area for buyers).

If we analyze the weekly timeframe, we see that the price is globally still moving in the falling channel, which was conducted from January 2018:

For a breakthrough, this trend is not of enough volume now. The excitement around this coin has passed. Although it remains the second after BTC, buyers stopped being as aggressive as they did during the growth from 18 December.

Though, the mood of ETH buyers is much better than BTC buyers. If we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, it is clear that they are increasing from 26 February:

Nevertheless, while the price is under the price zone of USD 155-USD 160 – to talk about the willingness of buyers to change the global trend is early.

Sellers continue to close their margin positions:

Estimating the situation concerning volumes which have significantly decreased, the maximum growth that we expect at this moment is USD 185 in the form of a false breakdown of the price zone of USD 155-USD 160:

At this price, the correction may end after the fall from November 2018, and the upper trend line of the falling channel will also be tested.

However, in our opinion, the continuation of consolidation in the triangle and the test of USD 115-USD 120 are more probable now.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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Bitcoin Market Analysis: 10th March 2019

Today, another week of trading ends, and we want to analyze what happened on the market during this period. However, we want to start with 27 January 2018. On this day, sellers were able to update a local minimum for the last time, after which buyers organized support in the form of a trend line that was kept until November 2018. All this time, buyers relied on a trend change, but the volumes of trading each day reduced this chance. What is happening now? After a sharp fall from USD 6000 to USD 3200, the price for the past 4 months is consolidated into a triangle and the volumes are even less than a year ago, when the price also consolidated for almost a year:

Despite the attractive price, buyers behave themselves very passively. This can be seen if you analyze the two previous attacks by buyers. We think you remember how the growth from 17 December 2018 shown promise and how aggressive it looked. Compare it with the following buyers attack:

Both the volumes and the look of the candles say that each subsequent attack is more difficult for buyers. And the current growth without volumes can end as unpleasant as on 24 February:

Therefore, despite attempts to grow from buyers, we still expect a fall to the price zone of USD 3500 – USD 4500, at least in order to see if there are active buyers who are ready to keep the price when real volumes on the market will appear.

Marginal positions of buyers for the third week are closed, while the price is trying to grow:

Sellers are trying to increase their positions, especially on the weak growth without volumes:

Despite the small volumes and the systematic closing of marginal positions, the rate of fear and greed is rather high (55).

Another unpleasant fact is a weak rollback after the fall from November 2018. Buyers corrected this fall by 23.6% and are currently lagging behind.

If buyers cannot break through USD 4200 – USD 4300, then the new wave of the fall will not be weaker than in November 2018.

Looking at the current situation concerning volumes, the most positive scenario for us is a test of USD 4600.

Even after such growth, we expect a new attempt by sellers to continue falling. However, taking into consideration the nature of the fall from November 2018, there is a high probability of continuing trade within the triangle. Therefore, we expect the critical points (USD 3500 – USD 3550 and USD 4200 – USD 4300) and will make a decision only in these price zones. At such small volumes, when the daily volume reaches 10,000 BTC (once it was the volume in one hour with a bullish trend), it is very difficult to build forecasts. We continue to wish you patience and endurance not to enter into risky deals and hope that the next week will be interesting and active.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Charts: TradingView

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 8th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 8th March 2019

After an unsuccessful attempt by sellers to break through $3,765 and fix below the price zone of $3,830–3,860, buyers could drastically change the situation. We wrote about similar fears in the previous analysis, as the breakthrough of the price zone of $3,830–3,860 took place on small volumes. This is especially noticeable if compared with the volumes on 24 February, when the first attempt to break through this price zone was established:

Also, buyers managed to break through the local falling trend, which began on 28 February and now for 3 days, the price is traded below $4,000.

On the one hand, buyers have shown a desire for growth, but we do not like some facts:

  1. At the moment, there was no attempt to break through $4,000 in large volumes. Buyers are not trying to attack and just stopped in front of this level:

  1. Marginal buyers positions are not increasing. The mood of buyers looks rather passive:

  1. Despite the low volumes and the sluggishness of buyers, the index of fear and greed is quite high. This is often the case in potential market turning points.

  1. On a daily timeframe, it looks like a consolidation of at least $3,765–4,000 will continue.

In any case, the critical point from which we would take trading decisions is higher — it’s a price zone of $4,200–4,300. Sellers are already protecting this price zone four times and their volumes are increasing.

According to the wave analysis, starting from 18 December, the price movement consists of three waves. Therefore, we expect the third final wave of the fall, which should satisfy the lower trend line of the triangle, in which the price moves from 18 December:

Now buyers have a rollback after falling by 38.2%. If buyers can break through $4,000, then the next stop is $4,080, from which the fall may start:

Therefore, our forecast does not change and we continue to expect a fall in the price with the ultimate target of $3,500–3,560. We still do not like the passivity of buyers, and in the weekly analysis, we will show all the factors that make us worry.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 5th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 5th March 2019

Yesterday, the rest of the market participants ended their run and sellers began to be active. The level of $3,820 was broken through but there is some concern regarding how this was achieved.

Pay attention to the volumes, after which the price bounced from the level of $3,820 on 24 February. Yesterday’s  volumes were increased relative to the previous consolidation, but they are too small for a certain continuation of the fall:

So far, the price is consolidated at a broken level of $3,820 and it gives a certain advantage to sellers. If you line a price movement channel from 24 February, then now the price is on the middle line of the channel and there is a prospect of continuation for the fall to $3,650–3,700:

In any case, for growth, buyers need to break through the upper trend line of this channel. During the past week, buyers did not succeed. Therefore, as long as the price is below $3,900, we believe that it is more likely to continue to fall.

Marginal buyers positions have ceased to close actively from 28 February and all this time have remained in consolidation:

Sellers, despite the continuation of the fall, are closing their positions, though not very actively:

On a daily timeframe, yesterday’s daytime candle looks confident. The candle has a big body and inspires the idea that sellers will continue the fall after they see that buyers are not able to regain control of $3,820. In this case, we will see some false breakdowns, after which the price will sharply extend its journey to $3,600–3700.

According to the wave analysis, after yesterday’s fall, buyers were able to organize rollback by 38.2%:

If buyers fail to break through the consolidation down, then after breaking $3,760, the ultimate target is $3,700.

So far, we continue to adhere to our weekly scenario and hope to increase volumes. Otherwise, the price may move in a triangle that has been formed since November for almost half a year (until August):

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 4th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 4th March 2019

After a rousing attempt by buyers to break through the price range of $150–160, which started from 18 February and ended on 23 February, sellers were able to drastically change the situation in their favor. Within one day, the price fell by 20% and consolidation was on the market during the whole of last week. Buyers were not able to organize even a deep rollback after the fall, and this consolidation was more like a small stop, after which a new strong impulse down emerged. If you build levels of Fibonacci, it is clear that buyers were able to correct the fall from 24 February by only 23.6%:

Such a rollback can only testify to the weakness of buyers and the reluctance to start growth from current prices.

Therefore, we do not change our forecast and continue to wait for a test of the price zone of $116–120. In the previous analysis, we wrote that this price zone is of great importance. First of all, in this zone, the price always either bounces or stops in consolidation for a long period:

And if buyers or sellers manage to break through this price zone for the first time, then this happens in large volumes. Therefore, for sellers, it will test their strength and readiness to continue to fall, and for buyers the chance to continue consolidation in the triangle, which lasted from November 2018.

In addition to the strong price zone, now there is a lower trend line, which buyers were able to protect on 7 February. This fact only reinforces the importance of the price range of $116–120.

If you analyze the mood of market participants, then buyers are displaying calm:

Despite an obvious initiative of sellers, buyers are in no hurry to close their positions. However, if panic starts on the part of customers, then the prospects of closing positions are big. Now the positions are near the historical high and the trend of position growth is slowly suspended. Therefore, we advise to be careful and to be prepared; if buyers do not keep the price range of $116–120, a sharp fall can continue.

Marginal positions of sellers are not increasing and are now on the lower limit of consolidation, which began on 18 August 2018:

On the whole, everyone is waiting for a confident movement and is not ready yet to actively build up their positions.

According to the wave analysis, now there is a correction after the fall wave from 13 November. If sellers break through the price range of $116–120 (we can extend it to $110–120), it means that the correction has ended and a new phase of fall has begun with a minimum target of $78–79:

If buyers keep this price zone, then there is a great chance to continue growth and after breaking through $150–160 to test $188–190:

Therefore, we expect the behavior of buyers in the price zone of $116–120 to estimate future prospects.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

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