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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

The last two days were slightly different than expected. Given the level of volumes and the weakness of buyers near the price zone of $5,200-5,300, it is quite natural that a correction should start:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

However, on 22 April, buyers started their attack, after sellers did not want to continue to fall on 21 April, and at low volumes tried to break down $5,200-5,300:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

What surprises us in this situation?

  1. Pay attention to the volumes in the daily timeframe. There are no large volumes on a growth too aggressive and uncorrected.
  2. Pay attention to the marginal positions of buyers. Even with such a decisive rise in prices, buyers do not behave themselves confidently and actively do not open positions:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

  1. Sellers increase their marginal positions during the whole growth period:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

  1. Today, with the growth of bitcoin, other coins either are in place or in a fall. This suggests a lack of volumes in order to whole crypto market can grow.

At the moment, the price continues to be in the blue growth channel from December 2018. Buyers are trying to accelerate growth, but in our opinion, it is an artificial growth, which occurs without much opposition from sellers and without special volumes.

According to the wave analysis, if we consider the growth from December 2018 as a correction, then buyers should not have had the power to break through $5,200-5,300. In the price of $5300 a wave c = 1.618 * a:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

Therefore, if sellers do not stop growth in the current range of prices, consider this as a correction after a difficult attempt for a strong fall, and growth will continue in the range of $6,200-6,300:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 23th April 2019

However, if we take into account all the facts we counted above, we follow the fall scenario within the blue channel. However, keep an eye on the alternative scenario in the head and closely follow the top trend line of the blue channel.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. 

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. 

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Bitcoin’s First Golden Cross in 3 Years Emerges

Bitcoin’s First Golden Cross in 3 Years Emerges

Bloomberg analysts Eric Lam and Matt Turner have hit upon what they claim is yet another strong sign that the crypto bear is retreating into the winter, and that the bull might just be emerging with a much anticipated crypto spring.

According to the Bloomberg trading analysts, the first bullish “golden cross” for Bitcoin has emerged since October 2015, making it the first appearance in over three and a half years.

According to Bitstamp pricing that includes weekend moves, the recent uptrend, which continued into the early hours of today in Asian trading, is showing up only a year after the dreaded Death Cross showed up in early 2018.

The golden cross is a candlestick pattern that is a relatively short-term moving average that crosses above a long-term moving average. It is seen a s hugely positive signal for traders and Bitcoin bulls will take heart at this milestone, as golden crosses can be the portent of a major buying spree for investors. This was indeed the case with the last Golden Cross in late 2015, the bottom levels from which were never breached again until three years later 2018.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to make new gains for 2019, scaling new heights at impressive volumes. Bitcoin currently trades just above USD 5,500 and shows no signs of letting up.

 

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Bitcoin Smashes 2019 Record, Surges Past Gold, Oil, Nasdaq

Bitcoin Smashes 2019 Record, Surges Past Gold, Oil, Nasdaq

Only three weeks after a sudden April Fool’s surge in Bitcoin price, followed by a mild correction, Bitcoin prices reached a new high for the year, trading above USD 5,600 during Asian trading time, before settling down now to around USD 5,500. The year to date profitability for Bitcoin has now reached 40%, outstripping the performance of any other traditional asset, including gold, oil and even Nasdaq.

While oil has enjoyed changing fortunes this year, black gold only has risen 37% since the start of the year, while three major indices (Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones) have all rallied since Christmas Crash, but only recording year to dates of 20.5%, 15.9% and 13.9% respectively. Gold is the biggest loser, literally, posting a 0.4% loss since 1 January 2019.

The 35% rally in April ensures that the world’s most speculated cryptocurrency is on track to enjoy its best monthly gain since the tumultuous bull run of December 2017. Other parts of the Bitcoin market also showed resounding gains, with the futures market at CME Group Inc recording its highest ever contract trading volumes for Bitcoin.

The tide certainly seems to be turning, with even adamant Bitcoin bears now putting forward positive sentiments, and accumulation patterns showing up for Bitcoin, amid increased demand for the currency in deteriorating economies like Venezuela and Iran, where hyperinflation and economic sanctions are taking their toll on national fiat.

 

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Will It, Wont It? Where Bitcoin Goes Now: The Next Hot Debate

Will It, Wont It_ Where Bitcoin Goes Now_ The Next Hot Debate

It is always interesting to get two entirely different opinions on a topic which divides even the best of friends, especially when they are not about Brexit, and here are two presented by UBS and Adamant Capital over Easter.

Bitcoin Bear or Bull, what’s it to be? Recovery appears to be on the way, but Kevin Dennean, technical analyst at Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company UBS thinks it won’t fly.

Dennean doesn’t agree with analysts who see Bitcoin’s recent upward movement past USD 5,000 as an illustration of something bigger just around the corner, citing Dow Jones in the Great Depression, the Nikkei in 1989, the Dotcom Boom and Bust, oil in 2008, and China’s recent stock market crash. He argues: “We’re struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels,” with a reminder that it took the Dow Jones 22 years to come back after the depression years.

“Maybe crypto bull contingents should consider what happens after the bubble, not every bubble that bursts, recovers the old highs,” Dennean, offers with a somewhat sobering reminder of things past.

Not so Adamant Capital’s latest report, simply warning that investors just need to hold their cool and live with a Bitcoin market between a short term range of USD 3,000 and USD 6,500 and then there should be another bull run ahead.

The current sentiment has recovered from capitulation and the blockchain shows us that Bitcoin HODLers are committing for the long-term again. This is confirmed by our drawdown and volatility analyses,” the report states.

When the report states that “the long term risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin is currently the most favorable of any liquid investment in the world”, hodlers might be looking at holding on just a little bit longer, although a USD 20,000 would be a lot to ask for. Whilst lower prices may still be a reality, although undervalued according to Adamant, the report brings good cheer for adopters. The report concludes:

“Supported by over 10 years of infrastructure development, we believe the stage is set for mass market adoption in the coming five years. In our assessment, during this phase (its “Windows moment”) Bitcoin will become widely recognized as a portfolio hedging instrument and reserve asset, and will begin making significant inroads as a payment network.”

 

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BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

Well… the weekly candle closed without any special tips and signals about the upcoming possible price movement.

The trading range ETH was 13%. Buyers have been able to keep the price zone of $155-160 for the second week. We think that this week should show the true intentions of market participants. Consolidation in the form of a triangle which started in December 2018 comes to an end. If we analyze the daily timeframe, then we see that it begins to form a new channel – the fall channel (from 8 April).

The bottom line of this channel is near the price zone of  $155-160. The top trend line is in the range of $176-177. So, while the price is moving no higher than $176-177, we believe that the initiative is on the side of sellers. However, this initiative is rather weak. If you analyze the volumes on which the fall is, then they are even slightly smaller than the volumes at the previous growth of $160:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

At a 4-hour timeframe, we see that sellers stopped over the local price zone of $165-168, in which in its turn was a stop for buyers before continuing growth to $179. However, at the moment, the volume during the present local consolidation is higher. Buyers are trying to keep the price and so far it is possible for them:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

If we talk about the mood of buyers, then their marginal positions are closing for several days, but in quite a passive manner:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

Seller marginal positions are also passively decreasing and are in the local growth channel, which is more like a correction:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

In wave analysis, we see that since December 2018, 5 correction waves (a, b, c, d, e) have been formed in the triangle. Buyers corrected the previous fall by 61.8%:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

If buyers cannot keep $155-160, then we expect the first stop of the sellers at the price of $123:

BitcoinNews.com Ethereum Market Analysis 22nd April 2019

We will consider the alternative scenario of continuation of growth after which buyers should break through $177. We think that before global growth, sellers should test buyers for strength, and buyers should show that they are ready to keep the price. Therefore, after buyer attempt to grow from December 2018, at least we expect a correction, after which we will analyze the future potential of the market. We wish you a successful and positive week. Keep your deposits!

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis: 21st April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

It is Sunday again, and it means that it’s time to do a weekly analysis of the price movement of the Bitcoin.

How does the week start? On 15 April, sellers tried to complete the growth and tested the local trend line, which is kept by buyers from 3 April. The first day after this fall was in favor of the sellers, until 16 April, the volumes did not increase by 2 times and the buyers began a new attempt to break through the price zone of USD 5200-5300:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

Since 16 April, buyers are trying to break through and fix over the price zone of USD 5200-5300, but so far it looks uncertain. Also, besides the important price zone USD 5200-5300, we also see that sellers confidently keep the black trend line, which was formed on 12 April:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

If you look at the daily timeframe, you can see how the price slows down. Pay attention how sharply buyers within one day managed to pick up to USD 5200-5300 and already for 5 days the price is either in this price zone or very close to it. In addition, the trading volumes are decreasing. If you compare the volumes of the buyers’ previous attempt to attack from 6 April, then the current attack takes place at smaller volumes.

If we analyze the mood of market participants, then at the end of the week the situation changed a bit. During Saturday and Sunday, buyers significantly reduced their marginal positions, although on the price chart we did not notice any abnormal movements:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

It suggests that the longer the price stands still, the less buyers believe in continuation of growth.

Sellers, on the contrary. Starting from 18 April sharply began to increase their positions.

However, their positions are in consolidation and are now near the upper limit of consolidation:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

Can we expect a sharp growth in case that marginal positions of sellers will sharply close? We don’t think so. If we analyze the price at which the sellers enter the position, we will see that it was in the range of USD 5250-5300. In our opinion, this is not a sufficient number of positions, which can cause strong movement, and we also see that buyers were trying to go beyond the price range of USD 5200-5300 on 19 April and sellers responded adequately.

The index of fear and greed is in a high position. Despite the weakness of the buyers. It indicates a possible strong down movement:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

On wave analysis, there are two options for the development of events. To determine a more likely option, we need to see what happens in the price zone of USD 5000-5050.

The first scenario is the continuation of consolidation under the price zone of USD 5200-5300 in the form of a triangle. If buyers can hold USD 5000-5050 – then the chance of breaking and fixing over the price zone of USD 5200-5300 will significantly increase:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

The second scenario is the end of the growth phase and the beginning of the fall with targets of USD 4850 and USD 4500:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

The second scenario could mean the end of the global correction after the fall in November 2018 and the beginning of a new wave of fall:

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st April 2019

We, also, want to emphasize that the weekly chart clearly shows that buyers have not yet been able to take control of the black trend line they kept during 2018, but in November, sellers could break it.

Therefore, in light of these facts, we expect at least a correction of the growth that began in December 2018 with targets indicated above. Wait for confirmation or correction of the scenario on Tuesday. We wish you productive next week!

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. 
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. 

Charts Courtesy:TradingView

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Breaking Down the Latest Ethereum Developments

Breaking Down the Latest Ethereum Developments

Ethereum’s core development team is constantly working to improve and make changes to the native blockchain on which the #2 cryptocurrency is built. This can be observed via the on-chain data available, including the popularity of the native smart contracts.

However, as the bulk of the cryptocurrency market enjoys a period of bullish growth, Ethereum is struggling to entice miners to the network due to break-even prices.

What the on-chain dates can tell us

  • Like Bitcoin, active Ethereum addresses (those engaged in transactions within the last 24 hours) have experienced an upturn after 9 months or so of steady decline; this change has coincided with the rise of both cryptocurrencies’ prices.
  • Decentralized finance, or DeFi, has proved to be the second biggest use case so far for Ethereum, private fundraising being the first. Growth in the area of DeFi has been at a lull for the last month or so after demonstrating impressive growth rates since September last year, potentially showing it has reached a temporary structural ceiling.
  • The aggregate number of smart contract interactions have been on the rise since February, coming close to the all-time highest levels, seen in April 2018. Because the number of new ICOs have been at such low levels for over a year now, it can be assumed that the rising smart contract use demonstrates a strengthening of trust in their utility. Stability in Gas cost also implies the network is moving closer to network capacity.

The Ethereum hash rate negative trend

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency, but unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s hash rate has failed to pick up since the favorable market turn. Current market prices have meant Ethereum mining is still unprofitable for many, showing the network has failed to meet equilibrium yet. Compared to Bitcoin, the inflation rate of Ethereum remains high.

The fact that Ethereum will be moving to a Proof-of-Stake system in the near future may also be influencing the lack of miners on the network, although the date of this implementation has already been pushed back once this year.

Ethereum price fluctuations

While Ethereum may not be as bullish right now as Bitcoin or many of the altcoins it has pulled up with it, in the last few days ETH has shown a strong rebound hitting USD 174 before settling around USD 166. Against the USD, Etherum surpassed key levels at USD 169/ USD 179, showing indicators that a climb past USD 180 is viable.

Ethereum is currently +1.25%, trading at USD 173.22; at its peak price in January 2018, Ethereum was trading at USD 1345.07. In December last year, it fell as low as USD 84.00 – a level not experienced since May 2017.

 

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Report: Crypto Bear Subdued, Accumulation Grows

Report_ Crypto Bear Subdued, Accumulation Grows

Digital assets fund manager Adamant Capital has published a new report which gives fresh evidence that the cryptocurrency winter is slowly giving way to a crypto spring, with the crypto bear market now approaching its final stages.

This phase, according to the report, should now usher in Bitcoin to within the USD 3,000 to USD 6,500 range of trading, maintaining and gathering momentum until a new bull market gains ground. According to their data, the patterns are slowly emerging that are mirroring market patterns in 2015-2016, shortly before Bitcoin embarked on a parabolic growth pattern in 2017.

Analysis from the report also suggests that the market is seeing retail traders slowly leave, while long-term traders are again gaining dominance. It also fits in with other analyses of Bitcoin volatility lows:

“During the accumulation phase, the market will trade in a range: the weak hands, who are trying to get out of the market, take profit during rallies and thus create the resistance, and the strong hands, looking to accumulate, buy at the bottom of the range which eventually creates a floor in the piece.”

Bitcoin accumulation is one common indicator of a crypto market that is primed for a rally. At the end of March, just two days before the sudden April surge of 20% in Bitcoin price, Bitcoin News had reported on an all-time high for unspent transaction outputs (UTXO), a marker considered by many to be another strong sign of accumulation.

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Coinbase Adds Latin America and Southeast Asia to Its Expanding Client Base

Coinbase Adds Latin America and Southeast Asia to Its Expanding Client Base

US cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase is to add 11 new markets in Latin America and Southeast Asia as part of its current global expansion programme.

This is hot on the trail of its expansion in the UK market seeing revenue growth of 20% to USD 173 million, and the recent announcement of its new Coinbase card. In 2018, the exchange recorded USD 520 million in revenue according to Reuter’s latest figures.

The Visa card, linked with the Coinbase Card app for iOS and Android, is only available to UK account holders, although there are plans to add support for other European countries in the future. The card will allow worldwide purchases where crypto payments are available online or in store.

Latin America has been in Coinbase’s sights for some time, so the access to trading services in Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile won’t come as a huge surprise to those in the region, given the company’s desire to spread its services to all corners of the globe.

Southeast Asia has a booming cryptocurrency market with Japan and South Korea leading the way, so a move towards capturing a piece of the market in the region is a sound move with India, Hong Kong, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand customers now having access to Coinbase services.

With 53 countries now using Coinbase services including the recently added Andorra, Gibraltar, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Lithuania, and Iceland, the San Francisco-based company has thrown down the gauntlet to other major exchanges in its bid to become the globally dominant cryptocurrency exchange.

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Bakkt Gets Creative with NY Crypto License

Bakkt Gets Creative with NY Crypto License

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is attempting to facilitate the launch of its delayed Bakkt platform by obtaining a New York cryptocurrency license to seemingly bring about a more favorable outcome, according to Bloomberg’s report.

The much-lauded physically delivered Bitcoin futures platform – Bakkt – which is expected to further the adoption of Bitcoin to both institutions and retail investors, has been delayed for five months, with currently no date set for launch, as CEO Kelly Loeffler hinted:

“While we’re not yet able to provide a launch date, we’re making solid progress in bringing the first physical delivery price discovery contracts for Bitcoin to the .S, where price formation will occur in federally regulated, transparent markets.”

The delay has been for the most part due to custody concerns from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which considered the custody infrastructure currently in place to be inadequate. Moreover, the regulator’s rules require clearinghouses to deposit customer funds at a bank or trust company – none of which Bakkt is, according to the report. Although, the CFTC had earlier suggested Bakkt register as a trust company to circumnavigate the concern.

CFTC had granted Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) self-certification based on the fact that they settled their futures contract in cash, unlike in the case of Bakkt where settlements will be in Bitcoin, which raised the initial concerns of custody given the nature of asset theft in the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, the regulator alongside CME and CBOE agreed to significant enhancements to protect customers.

ICE hopes a New York crypto license will influence the regulator’s decision positively, given that the license grants the Bakkt platform permission from New York’s Department of Financial Services to hold tokens.

In the background, the Bakkt project continues to develop as it grows its workforce as well as acquire asset relevant to its development.

 

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