Category Archives: forecast

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Satis Group Issues Crypto Forecast, Expects $3.6 Trillion Market Cap by 2028

Satis Group has released an in-depth forecast of the crypto market through 2028, expecting that the total crypto market cap will rise significantly year over year and hit USD 3.6 trillion by 2028. By that year, it expects Bitcoin will be the top cryptocurrency with a price of USD 144,000, Monero second with a price of USD 40,000, and Dash third at USD 3,000. On the other hand, Satis Group expects Ripple, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash to be quite insignificant by the time 2028 rolls around.

The ICO advisory expects the total crypto market cap to first exceed USD 1 trillion by 2021, USD 2 trillion by 2024, and USD 3 trillion by 2027. There is a strong uptrend all the way up to the end of the forecast in 2028, when the crypto market cap hits USD 3.6 trillion, suggesting Satis Group expects crypto to rise far into the future. This is in agreement with crypto experts who think Bitcoin and other cryptos will eventually replace fiat currency as the dominant global currency.

Satis Group says that penetration of offshore capital will be the main thing driving the crypto markets, which makes privacy coins like Monero the best bet for the biggest gains long term. Monero is sitting at USD 109 as of this writing on 31 August 2018, but Satis is saying it will rally to USD 1,500 in the next year, and that will be just the beginning of a prolific rally that will bring Monero to USD 40,000 by 2028. This is because the privacy-centric cryptocurrency will be an excellent way to transact and store crypto while dodging government regulations.

Bitcoin will reign as king according to Satis Group, hitting USD 33,000 in the next year, breaching USD 100,000 in five years and USD 144,000 by the end of the forecast in 2028. Regarding Bitcoin, Satis Group says, “Despite a lack of appeal during retail frenzies, we continue to believe that BTC and its network effect will dominate end-market share within currencies and the overall cryptoasset market, driven by: 1) increasing liquidity and purchasing avenues, 2) increasing brand recognition, 3) its position as the default base-pair within the crypto markets, 4) declining relative volatility, 5) relative lack of attack vectors, 6) network capacity alleviation through the maturity of layer-2 solutions, and 7) an increasingly high attack and overthrow cost”.

Other currencies that stand to gain long term are Litecoin and Dash, although their market share compared to Bitcoin and Monero will be small. Perhaps surprisingly, Satis Group says the current top-ranked altcoin, Ethereum, will struggle long term and only be worth USD 600 in 2028. This is because Satis Group thinks penetration of offshore capital will drive the crypto markets, not Dapp usage.

According to Satis Group, cryptocurrencies that are imitations and don’t offer any real technological advantages, like Bitcoin Cash, won’t grow long term. It says that in 2028, Bitcoin Cash will be worth USD 180 at the same time Bitcoin is worth USD 144,000.

Additionally, Satis Group thinks Ripple is centralized and misleading since it’s not even required to use the Ripple network, and they expect its price to decline to USD 0.004 by 2028, from USD 0.334 currently. The group actually says Ripple will crash 90% and EOS to experience a violent 99% crash in the next year, likely due to centralization issues.

 

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Stock Analytics Firm Trefis Adjusts Year-End BTC Prediction to $12,500

Stock analytics firm Trefis announced in a 5 June blog post the reduction of its Bitcoin year-end price valuation from USD 15,000 to USD 12,500. It also shared the headline of the article on Twitter, with a link to the original blog post.

Lowering Our Year-End Bitcoin Price Target To $12,500 Due To Weaker Transaction Volume Outlookhttps://t.co/Plya7iHWKo

— TREFIS (@Trefis) June 6, 2018

Supply and demand

Trefis’s price forecast is focused predominantly on the supply and demand of Bitcoin, with demand describing the number of users and transactions and supply referring to the amount of Bitcoin available.

In part, Trefis pointed to a significant downward trend in the number of total transaction volumes across cryptocurrency exchange platforms, with a supply surplus and vast sums of Bitcoin dumped into the market this spring leading to a drop in price.

Due to these factors, the blog post reads: “Adjusting our forecast for transaction volumes… leads to a year-end price target of around $12,500 – down from our earlier estimate of $15,000.”

While Trefis acknowledged that although Bitcoin enjoyed some gains in the final days of May, the month still experienced a sharp decline after reaching nearly USD 10,000.

The Trefis website offers an interactive Bitcoin price estimator, which reflects both the number of individual Bitcoin users and transaction volumes for each month of the year. This feature is a useful addition that allows users to see exactly how their price valuations are calculated.

Alternative predictions

Not all industry pundits share Trefis’s gloomy perspective on Bitcoin’s future worth, however.

Earlier this year Tom Lee, head of Fundstrat’s research department stood by his predictions of Bitcoin reaching USD 25,000 by the end of 2018.  He described the situation as a matter of market timing, noting that if an investor missed the 10 best Bitcoin preforming days every year their annual returns would decrease by 25%.

Venture capitalist Spencer Bogart predicted in May this year that Bitcoin will trade at least above USD 10,000 by the end of December while arguing most altcoins are more likely to be overvalued. For Bogart, he views the institutionalization of Bitcoin as the source of its price stability.

”The institutionalization of Bitcoin is absolutely occurring… Every major bank is trying to do something in the space,” Bogart said.

 

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