Bitcoin’s stability over the recent months has cryptocurrency commentators agreeing that speculation is leaving the market and giving way to a sense of stability.
With Bitcoin holding its ground since July of this year, many experts are now predicting that the volatility which preceded Bitcoin’s leveling out has little chance of returning, as Bitcoin’s price shifting 5 percent in a day only once in the last month compared to more frequent higher percentage fluctuations in preceding months.
Some argue that this is a sign of Bitcoin “bottoming out,” others predict a bullish run is just around the corner. What most experts do agree on is that stability is good for the market and most likely a result of speculators falling by the wayside as chances of a quick profit on their investment seems unlikely. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone sees this as the most likely scenario suggesting “High volatility is a major factor lessening most cryptocurrency use cases for anything other than speculation.”
Bitcoin’s price has reached unprecedented levels of stability during the latter half of October 2018, so far at least. After some volatility in the middle of October, the price of Bitcoin has settled into a narrow trading between USD 6,350 and USD 6,500. The daily volatility of Bitcoin fell below USD 100 on 19 October and continues to be below that threshold as of 26 October. This is the first time an entire week has had such low volatility since at least April 2017.
Charlie Morris, multi-asset head at Atlantic House Fund Management in London asserts that the bear market is coming to an end commenting, “It simply means the market is calm and in balance. That implies that speculative interest is low… Given this bear market is now 10 months old and is getting tired, I’d be inclined to be bullish for the next major move.”
Recent CBOE Global Markets data shows that the 20-day historical volatility of Bitcoin has fallen to 31.5 percent, lower than many major companies, including Amazon (35 percent), Netflix (52 percent), Nvidia Corp (4o percent) and Domino’s Pizza (36.2 percent).
Kevin Davitt from CBOE suggests that Bitcoin’s current status could be the flagship’s new standard position and therefore resistant to major change:
“Perhaps we are witnessing the maturation of a market. It’s far too early to declare this the ‘new normal’ but the persistent range over the last few weeks may be hinting at a structural shift. Time will tell.”
Danial Daychopan, chief executive officer of Plutus, suggests this is the after effect of the heady days of speculation in 2017, and rather than a hangover, Bitcoin’s current stability is more of a leveling out, commenting that “the cost of the emotional traders has been washed away by the recent crash and with it a lot of the volatility.”
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