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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 18th April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 18th April 2019

After the previous analysis, the price zone test of $5,200-5,300 stopped in consolidation. Buyers are trying to build a movement that is limited to the orange triangle. At the moment, the price is clearly moving under the upper trend line. If you analyze the volume of trading, then they do not change in the direction of increase and growth is actually carried out because of the lack of resistance from the side of the sellers.

Yesterday’s daytime candle showed that there is liquidity in the price zone of $5,200-5,300. Pay attention to two candles and their volumes (16 and 17 April and). Almost at the same volumes, the size and shape of the candles are quite different. This allows us to assume that, without increasing of volumes from the part of buyers, the price zone of $5,200-5,300 should be kept and trade in the triangle should continue.

Buyers increase their marginal positions, on the chart, so far, it does not pass into a trend and more like consolidation:

Sellers also are increasing their positions, but at the moment, it does not look confident. Everyone was waiting in anticipation.

If we analyze the current triangle, then it is likely that the price will continue to be traded there until the end of the week. Now, practically only three waves have been formed (a, b, c):

Until we see an increase in volume from buyers, we regard the current price movement in the triangle as a correction after the fall from 10 April. As you can see, buyers corrected the previous fall by more than 61.8% and the maximum possible growth in this scenario is $5,370:

Given this, we expect a minimum fall to $5,000-5,050. In this case, the wave Y = 0.618 * W:

An alternative scenario is the breakdown and fixing over the price zone of $5,200-5,300 and the test of the top of the blue trend line of the channel in which the price moves from December 2018:

Meanwhile, we can only entertain the small volume market, waiting for clear signals.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 16th April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 16th April 2019

After the seller breakthrough of the local trend line on April 11, the price is traded in consolidation. In a previous analysis, we wrote that the initiative passed into the hands of sellers, and we see that so far that they are not enjoying this privilege too much. Yesterday, sellers in an increased volume tried to continue the fall, but buyers were able to stop this attack and are now trying to break the price zone of $5,200-5,300:

In any case, now the price moves under the local trend line and this is a sign of weakness of buyers. We expect some time of consolidation in this price zone, after which we should see a continuation of the fall.

If we draw the second trend line from 12 April, then we see that a triangle has been formed. After breaking $5,000, sellers opened their way to $4,600-4,700 with a global target of $4,200-4,300.

If we analyze the daily timeframe, then at the moment we see a consolidation under the price zone of $5,200-5,300 and the global black trend line that buyers have been keeping since February 2018.

Marginal customer positions are beginning to increase, but not as impulsive as the price of BTC:

Sellers in today’s growth also increased their positions and it speaks to the fact that their confidence is increasing:

We also noticed that after the fall on 11 April, the buyer’s initiative and volumes fell. Note how buyers continued to grow after correction and how the growth looks like now:

Every successive attempt to grow is weaker, but the fall is always abrupt.

The current growth attempt corrected the fall from 11 April by almost 61.8%. If the current growth is considered as a correction, before the next impulse of the fall, then the wave c = a, at the price of $5,260:

In this case, after breaking through $5,000-$5,050, the first target is $4,700:

An alternative scenario of the price movement is also possible. If buyers keep the low trend line and a price zone of $5,000-5,050, the movement in a narrow channel between the black and blue trend lines is quite likely. In this case, if sellers do not stop growth to $5,300, the last critical point is $5,500.

After this critical point, the price can be stopped by price zone of $6,200-6,300. Therefore, we continue to monitor the market and expect the final signals for trading.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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Bitcoin Market Analysis: 14th April 2019

The BTC trading week, which began on 8 April, was a controversial one. At the beginning of the week, buyers continued their lazy attack on small volumes, but the replies of sellers were even weaker. Since this situation lasted from the beginning of the month, the probability of growth was gradually increasing. However, the main signal that we wrote about in the previous analysis was the breakthrough and fixing above the USD 5300 price. By 10 April, buyers were trying to finally break the situation on the market and grab this critical point. The true chance for buyers appeared on 10 April, but because of the small volumes sellers were able to protect this price:

We see that the main attack of buyers took place in the small volumes, and after that, the sellers were able to lower the price below the red trend line without problems and special volumes. Now the price is traded under this line and for us it is a repeated signal of buyers’ weakness.

If we analyze the situation on a daily timeframe, then we see that in the price zone of USD 5200-5300 for 4 days was a fight in which buyers lost. Now, buyers are trying to create another attempt, but we see that it is more like a correction before continuation of the fall:

Globally, starting from December 2018, the price is moving in the blue channel and is currently at the top of the trend line of this channel. Compare the volumes of the previous local high in the blue channel with the current local high:

In our opinion, these volumes are not enough to accelerate growth, so at best, we expect the continuation of the fall within the blue channel with the first stop of USD 4600-4700 (the middle channel line):

The critical price zone is USD 4200-4300. We think that from this price zone depending on whether buyers will continue their global growth or vice versa, the down trend will continue.

It is interesting to observe the mood in the market. Analyzing the chart of marginal buyers’ positions, we did not see confidence in their actions:

Also, we did not see confidence in the chart of marginal positions of sellers, which for the last few days was practically in place, forming pins:

If you analyze the index of fear and greed, then the mood of market participants is changing radically day by day. Yesterday, the value of the index was 42, today is 62.

According to the wave analysis, buyers corrected the fall from October 2018 by 50% and now the last wave of correction is over:

If you compare the waves correlation, then the wave Y = W * 1.618. Buyers could not pass this level of Fibonacci:

Therefore, we continue to adhere to the main scenario – the continuation of the fall, for the beginning to USD 4200-4300. An alternative scenario will be possible after breakthrough and fixing at USD 5,300.

Generally, the week is closed within the blue channel and under the global trend line, which was conducted from February 2018. Now the initiative belongs to the sellers. How it will be used by sellers next week, we can analyze already on Tuesday. We wish profitable trades!

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Charts Courtesy: TradingView

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 11th April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 11th April 2019

It is time to assess the current situation with Bitcoin. Has the situation changed at least a little? In the previous analysis, buyers consolidated below the price of $5,300 in order to break through this important level. Each time the price reaches the mark of $5,300, a local turn is started:

This time, buyers were able to break through $5,300, but on a 4-hour timeframe, we see that sellers immediately responded to such a bold buyer’s move. At the moment, sellers were able to break through the growth channel, in which the price was moving from 2 April. If the sellers do not continue the active attack, we expect a price return up to $5,300. It will be a peculiar test of the level and the low trend line of the channel. If this growth appears without volumes, then it will be a good signal that the fall is just beginning.

The mood of buyers ceases to be as positive as it was the beginning of the month. Marginal positions of buyers are traded in the triangle:

Sellers have recovered from the previous panic closure of their positions and are still uncertain in increasing their positions. However, the price coming out of the growth channel is just a sign of weakness, but we know how the price by inertia can grow without volumes.

Therefore, the confidence of sellers can instill or halt the continuation of the fall, or display a sluggish test of $5,300 by buyers.

On wave analysis, we see that buyers could not break through the 1.618 level of the Fibonacci:

Also, we clearly see that there is a global channel of the price movement from which buyers could not get out and the middle of this channel is in the price of $4,650-4,700.

Therefore, in the near future, we expect a maximum growth up to $5,300, after which the fall will continue. Otherwise, sellers will not allow such a deep test and the fall will accelerate. This scenario is quite real, because buyers are not so impulsive to buy:

Summarizing the above, we continue to think that growth since December 2018 was a correction which is now in the final stage. Have a good end of the week and see you on Sunday.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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Bitcoin Market Analysis: 7th April 2019

The hot weekends have given hope to many investors that the market is still alive and has a chance to see new heights in the near future. Today we will try to objectively analyze the situation on the market and identify critical points.

This week the price has grown by almost 30%, it happened on 2 April. To be as accurate as possible, the main volumes of this week were recorded during 2 hours of 2 April. The whole other movement took place in the usual small volumes:

If you continue to analyze last week under a microscope, then you can note that when you try to reach the price zone of USD 5200 – USD 5300 the volumes begin to increase:

Sellers are beginning to be active, but at the moment their strength is not enough to change the situation.

If you look at the situation on the global timeframe, then the price continues to be in the range of two trend lines:

In order to break through the price zone of USD 4200 – USD 4300, it took 4 months for buyers to form forces. And only with the 4th attempt buyers succeeded. The price zone USD 5200 – USD 5300 is a much more serious problem, in our opinion. Pay attention to how difficult it was for sellers to break through the black trend line, which buyers kept from February 2018 to November 2018:

Therefore, we believe that in an optimistic scenario, before the continuation of growth, there should be a correction that will show how many actual sellers remain in the market. It is important for buyers at such correction to keep an aggressively broken price zone of USD 4200 – USD 4300.

If you analyze the mood of buyers, then marginal positions begin to decrease. We think that in the given situation, the longer the price will be in one place, the faster the mood of buyers for the probable continuation of growth will disappear:

Sellers’ marginal positions are also at lows, but this week they are steadily trying to grow:

The current attack of buyers takes place in the black trend channel. If buyers can not break through this channel, then globally this could be a correction after the fall in November 2018:

The correction consists of three waves and it can be seen at the moment that wave c = 1.618 * a.

Therefore, under the second scenario, if buyers can not keep USD 4200 – USD 4300, the first serious problem for sellers will appear at a price of USD 3600:

That is why we are waiting for the closing of the week and see what the sellers have prepared in response to such bold actions of buyers.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Charts: TradingView

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 2nd April 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 2nd April 2019

After a long and boring consolidation on the market, there was an unexpected surprise today. In previous analyzes, we paid a lot of attention to the price zone of $4,200-4,300. Since the market did not have enough volumes and the buyers behaved passively, the chance of breaking the price zone was rather small. However, after breaking the critical zone, why was the price able to fly up so quickly? The answer is on the chart of marginal positions of sellers:

Sellers who were in a position in continuation of the fall during the whole month, during one day were hellishly broken. However, after this situation, sellers again began to gain positions, but much more intensively.

In one day, Bitcoin has risen in price by 20%. The last time such growth was observed was one day in October 2018:

It feels like a provocation to reduce active sellers in the market, or a real signal of the start of growth. We will see on Thursday, when the market recovers from the anomaly. Although, if we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, we see that the prospect of increasing positions is still high:

As you can see, from 2017 there is a blue trend line, from which a strong turnaround always begins. Therefore, if buyers keep the price range of $4,200-4,300 and the attempt of sellers to break through this price zone will be weak in terms of volumes, this will mean that buyers will have a chance in the medium term prospect to test $6,200:

If we draw the trend line from February 2018 on the minimum, we will see that now buyers have practically tested this line. Given the fact that throughout the year 2018, the price movement was based on the principle of several hours of movement and several weeks of consolidation, we think that buyers should not be so rash to continue growth.

In addition to the lower trend line, you can draw the upper trend line from 20 February 2018. We see that buyers have tested it today and formed a new critical zone of $4,850-5,150:

If we analyze the three-hour timeframe, now consolidation is under the blue trend line on the increased (relatively to the previous period) volumes:

Talking about the wave analysis, we believe that a global correction is taking place after the fall in November 2018:

Therefore, we consider that buyers above $5,300 without correction should not raise the price. Otherwise, growth from December 2018 is not a correction of the global fall but a new global wave of growth, which means that the market has moved into a new phase.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 31st March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 31st March 2019

One more week has passed, during which the price continued to move in the triangle. Looking at the daytime timeframe, you can see certain green candles that alternate with little red candles. Such a picture should mean that buyers have much stronger positions than sellers and that growth should continue. However, if you look at the volume of trades during the week, it becomes clear that we cannot rely on current prices and predict the continuation of growth:

Too small volumes of growth tell us about the high probability of continuation of the consolidation and the passive position of sellers in the market. Theoretically, buyers even managed to break through the trend line of the triangle and now the price is trading over it. However, with the breakdown of trend lines of triangles, in which the price was consolidated for 4 months, there should be a pronounced increase in volume and large aggressive bull candles. In our case, we see the ending of the buyer forces and the high probability of returning the price to consolidation.

As we wrote in previous analyses, an important price zone for the continuation of growth is $4,200-4,300. Looking at the dynamics of volumes, starting in March 2019, the probability that buyers are trying to overcome this price zone is now extremely low. There is a much larger probability of a sharp fall to $3,650-3,700. In this price zone, the lower trend line of the triangle passes. Also, in this price zone was the first stop of the fall in prices from 25-26 November:

Despite the rise in prices this week, marginal buyers positions are in consolidation. Buyers unanimously do not increase their positions.

Sellers are trying to increase their positions but they do it with uncertainty:

The fear/greed index is quite high. Approximately, at such rates sellers begin to take the initiative into their own hands:

If we analyze the waves inside the triangle, then we see that the wave “c” is finishing now, after which sellers must test the strength of the lower trend line and form a wave “d”:

Looking at the overall picture of the weekly timeframe, we notice only the weakness of the buyers inside the triangle and the probability of continuing consolidation until the end of April 2019:

So keep up patience and continue to monitor the weakness and deadness of the market. We hope that the next month will be much more active, but so far there are no prerequisites for this.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 28th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 28th March 2019

After testing the bottom line of the triangle, the sellers unexpectedly stopped their pressure on the price and then after a small consolidation, which more resembled a stop before continuation of the fall, the price began to increase sharply. The first obstacle on the way of buyers was the price of $3,988. Later, buyers coped with this level and the price went up to $4,100 without problems. However, there is one fact that alarms us and makes us think that buyers will not be able to break through the upper trend line of the triangle and the price will continue its movement within the triangle. Pay attention to the volumes at where the attempt of growth is :

These volumes do not differ from the average volumes until the price is in the triangle. Therefore, we do not believe that the situation in the market has changed dramatically. We think that because of the reluctance of sellers to break through the lower trend line of the triangle, such an indefinite situation can continue until 10 April. At the moment, the critical point for sellers is $4,140. However, above this price is a priced zone of $4,200–4,300, from which the price has already been reflected 3 times in the daily timeframe:

Therefore, buyers need to show true character and strength in order to break the trend. Though, despite the fact that sellers have not broke the triangle down, we do not see signals to change the trend.

Marginal positions of buyers begin to close while approaching to the upper trend line:

Sellers did not expect such a development of events. It is noticeable on their marginal positions:

Take into account, that the price has increased by only 3%, but we see a massive closing of marginal positions of sellers.

If we analyze the latest wave of the fall, then we can see that the current growth attempt, which lasted from 5 March, corrected the fall wave by 61.8% (precisely at this level of Fibonacci the battle continues):

Therefore, locally, we expect to see the test of the upper trend line of the triangle, after which the new attempt of sellers to continue their stable trend movement will begin. Globally, we believe that after breaking through the bottom trend line, the triangle will expand and consolidation will continue, only in the larger percentage range:

However, for this scenario, sellers should show their strength and keep the upper trend line of the triangle and the price range of $4,200–4,300. We will be happy to talk about global forecasts at the end of the week at the weekly price analysis.

 

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He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 26th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 26th March 2019

After a 10-day consolidation in the range of $4,040–4,160, sellers were able to satisfy all buyer demand and continued to fall to the first trend line of the triangle. Sellers were able to break $3,988 and are currently keeping this level successfully. If we analyze the chart from 20 February, then the price of $3,988 was a real problem for buyers:

Pay attention to how the volumes look like in those cases when the price reached this level. At the moment, buyers are trying to change the situation, but it would be nice to see in addition to trying more volumes.

At 4-hour timeframe we see that buyers were able to slow down the fall and sellers have made it possible to make a correction:

However, buyers do not show us a strong potential growth and we expect the continuation of the fall and breakdown of the trend line of the triangle down.

On an hourly timeframe, we clearly see a weak growth channel that more closely resembles consolidation at an angle. Since this consolidation does not see an increase in volumes, this is confirmed by the fact that the current growth attempt is just a stop before the continuation of the fall:

Marginal buyers positions do not increase with force as they increased since 17 March:

Sellers also close their positions. The market is dominated by the lack of volumes on both sides:

It is possible to understand sellers. The longer the fall trend, the more likely its correction or alteration. Moreover, the price is now rising with uncertainty and without volumes. However, we think that after the breakdown of the trend line of the triangle, the situation will become clear to buyers and sellers.

On the wave analysis, we see the completion of the fall wave, which consisted of three smaller waves:

At the moment, sellers corrected this fall wave by 23.6%. If sellers can not keep the price of $3,988 then the next price zone, from which there is a high probability of a continuation of the fall will be $4,020–4,040. After that, in our opinion, wave Y will begin, the targets of which are $3,830 and $3,700.

This is our main scenario of price movement. On the alternative scenario, we will be able to talk in the next analysis, if buyers give rise to it in the form of an increase in volumes. Meanwhile, we continue to wait for bearish days.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 24th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 24th March 2019

Hello to all the crypto traders and investors! We welcome you with another summary of the week that just ended and a forecast for the week ahead. Unfortunately, we are not sure that we can share positive news.

During the week, price traded in a narrow corridor of $4,040–4,120.

The only increase this week was noticed on 21 March. This volume was triggered by an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to fix over $4,120:

Buyers were able to break through the consolidation zone but did it in uncertain fashion. Typically, after breaking through such consolidations, the price confidently flies up and after rollback on small volumes, continues to grow. In our case, the price went only slightly beyond consolidation and unsuccessfully stopped, after which buyers could not keep the level that was broken. Sellers, with the help of one candle on a 4-hour timeframe, could lower the price even below the consolidation limits.

After a sharp fall, buyers do not show a desire to buy and behave very passively.

Also, pay attention to the situation on a three-hour timeframe:

If you compare the size of red and green candles and match them with their volumes, it becomes clear that buyers need much more effort to grow than sellers.

If we analyze the marginal buyer positions, they increased during the week. Buyers believed in growth and even on 21 March, when the price fell sharply, buyers increased their positions. Only since 23 March did buyers begin to doubt and decrease their positions:

Sellers during the growth of prices closed their positions. But note that every next day’s candle is less than the previous one:

If we analyze the daily timeframe, then the impression is that the fall only begins and the two previous days were the usual correction before the new impulse down:

The index of fear and greed for two days fell by 10 points. Therefore, if we analyze the mood of the market participants in general, then we see that buyers have ceased to believe in the continuation of growth and now  we enter a small calm before the storm.

If we consider the wave analysis, then we see that this week, buyers have completely formed the wave “e”, which could not break the triangle up. Therefore, we believe that the correction after the fall in November 2018 is completed and soon a new stage of the fall with a first stop of $3,650 should begin. At this price, located liquidity and the bottom trend line will also pass through. From this price, consolidation can continue in the wider triangle. However, globally, in any case, we think that the fall of Bitcoin will continue to $2,650. The only question is whether this will happen sharply, or after consolidation is continued in the wider triangle:

At this time, we are not considering an alternative scenario because of the total absence of signals for growth. However, if buyers are unexpectedly able to break through and fix a stage above the price zone of $4,200–4,300, we will review our opinion.

Meanwhile, we expect the continuation of the fall next week and the $3,650 test.

We wish you a profitable week and a great mood, despite forecasts!

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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