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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 24th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 24th March 2019

Hello to all the crypto traders and investors! We welcome you with another summary of the week that just ended and a forecast for the week ahead. Unfortunately, we are not sure that we can share positive news.

During the week, price traded in a narrow corridor of $4,040–4,120.

The only increase this week was noticed on 21 March. This volume was triggered by an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to fix over $4,120:

Buyers were able to break through the consolidation zone but did it in uncertain fashion. Typically, after breaking through such consolidations, the price confidently flies up and after rollback on small volumes, continues to grow. In our case, the price went only slightly beyond consolidation and unsuccessfully stopped, after which buyers could not keep the level that was broken. Sellers, with the help of one candle on a 4-hour timeframe, could lower the price even below the consolidation limits.

After a sharp fall, buyers do not show a desire to buy and behave very passively.

Also, pay attention to the situation on a three-hour timeframe:

If you compare the size of red and green candles and match them with their volumes, it becomes clear that buyers need much more effort to grow than sellers.

If we analyze the marginal buyer positions, they increased during the week. Buyers believed in growth and even on 21 March, when the price fell sharply, buyers increased their positions. Only since 23 March did buyers begin to doubt and decrease their positions:

Sellers during the growth of prices closed their positions. But note that every next day’s candle is less than the previous one:

If we analyze the daily timeframe, then the impression is that the fall only begins and the two previous days were the usual correction before the new impulse down:

The index of fear and greed for two days fell by 10 points. Therefore, if we analyze the mood of the market participants in general, then we see that buyers have ceased to believe in the continuation of growth and now  we enter a small calm before the storm.

If we consider the wave analysis, then we see that this week, buyers have completely formed the wave “e”, which could not break the triangle up. Therefore, we believe that the correction after the fall in November 2018 is completed and soon a new stage of the fall with a first stop of $3,650 should begin. At this price, located liquidity and the bottom trend line will also pass through. From this price, consolidation can continue in the wider triangle. However, globally, in any case, we think that the fall of Bitcoin will continue to $2,650. The only question is whether this will happen sharply, or after consolidation is continued in the wider triangle:

At this time, we are not considering an alternative scenario because of the total absence of signals for growth. However, if buyers are unexpectedly able to break through and fix a stage above the price zone of $4,200–4,300, we will review our opinion.

Meanwhile, we expect the continuation of the fall next week and the $3,650 test.

We wish you a profitable week and a great mood, despite forecasts!

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st March 2019

Starting from 18 March, buyers have been trying to build a local trend movement, with a clear line of support. However, if we remember the previous analysis, now the price moves in consolidation, with limits of $4,040 being the lower limit and $4,120 the upper limit. At the moment, buyers are able to break the upper limit of consolidation relatively in the increased volumes. However, this breakthrough is not yet sure. At the hourly timeframe, there is still a struggle for the upper limit of consolidation:

On a daily timeframe, growth from 18 March does not look bright and confident either in terms of size or character of candles. Buyers again are trying to test the upper trend line of the triangle:

Therefore, we continue to expect a local fall in the price at least to the lower limit of consolidation at $4,040. However, the critical price zone for buyers is $3,900–3,950. In addition to the fact that a good volume was formed in this price zone after the 18-day consolidation on 25 February, the lower trend line of the triangle, which buyers protect from December 2018, passes through this price zone:

If buyers do not keep this price zone then the first stop of the price at a price of $3,660.

If we analyze the mood of market participants, then buyers feel confident and increase their marginal positions:

Also, the confidence of buyers confirms the index of fear and greed, which is now at a rather high rate:

The only thing that impedes buyers in confident growth is volume, which at the moment is not enough.

Sellers became less confident and after yesterday’s growth of the coin, less than 1% began actively closing their margin positions:

According to the wave analysis, the last wave of the triangle “e” is now formed. Buyers have the last chance to change the situation now. To do this, they must complete their current attack with success. But every subsequent attempt by buyers is actually weaker:

If we analyze in detail the wave e, which consists of three waves, then we see that the wave a = c at the price of $4,150. The maximum possible length of the wave c is at the price of $4,300. But now, buyers stop growing and do not have the strength to move higher:

In concluding our analysis, we want to distinguish two critical points. If buyers do not keep the price range from $3,900–3,950, then the next global support for buyers is $3,500. After it, sellers will have a great chance to test $2,650.

However, if buyers find the strength to break the triangle up and fix above the price zone of $4,200–4,300, we will wait for a green positive period. However, looking at the current facts, we have little faith in the possibility of implementing the second scenario.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

The post BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 21st March 2019 appeared first on BitcoinNews.com.

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 20th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 20th March 2019

During the past four days, price traded in a narrow 2% corridor between the prices of $4,040–4,120. Today, buyers have decided to try to break through this consolidation. However, this attempt was not supported by a sufficient number of volumes. This is quite clear in comparison with the attempt to break through the global triangle on 16 December:

However, sellers are in no hurry to take the initiative. If you look at the growth dynamics from 4 March, then the current consolidation looks more like a stop before a continuation of growth. Sellers do not try to sell; the volumes in the consolidation are low. However, if you compare these dynamics to the growth on 18 February, then it becomes clear that faded candles and small volumes point to the weakness of buyers and the price can collapse sharply at any moment.

If we are talking about the mood, then it’s clear from the marginal positions of the buyers that they intend to continue the growth:

Today’s positions have grown significantly but the price has remained in the consolidation corridor.

Margin positions of sellers also began to increase and today, confidently emerged from the triangle located from 8 March:

From the point of view of the wave analysis, we are now coming to the end the correctional wave, which consists of subwaves a,b,c. This wave began after the breakdown of the lower trend line of the triangle on 5 March:

Therefore, our main scenario is unchanged and we expect a fall to start at $3,950 and if buyers do not keep the trend line of the triangle, our next targets will be $3,750 and $3,500.

An alternative scenario is the breakdown of the price zone of $4,200–4,300. However, at the moment, this scenario is unlikely.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 17th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 17th March 2019

Buyers are approaching the liquid zone, in which sellers with great desire begin to sell. When the price touched the trend line, the volumes increased and the pins appeared. Also, this price zone coincides with the upper trend line of the triangle, where the price is traded from November 2018.

One more week ended where the buyers decided to check the strength of the sellers. The whole week, the price was traded under the level of $3,988 and buyers did not have enough strength to stay above this level. However, the sellers did not try to continue to fall. From Friday, buyers still managed to break through the local level and test the upper trend line of the triangle. How did this happen?

The breakdown of the level was on small volumes. After the breakthrough, the sellers did not try to bring this level under control. It is perfectly visible on the volumes of a red candle below the price of $3,988:

This fact seems suspicious to us, since buyers have not been able to break through this level for a whole month, and on 15 March, they have made it without obstacles.

The main volume of this week was recorded on 16 March in the process of testing the upper trend line of the triangle. Let’s consider the situation on the 15-minute timeframe:

The increased volumes did not give the final result to buyers and the trend line was not broken. Also, taking into account the pins on increased volumes, we can conclude that most of these volumes were formed by sellers who locally unrolled the price from the trend line.

Therefore, given the nature of the movement and the quantity of volumes this week, we think that the probability of breaking the triangle upwards and continuation of a strong rapid growth remains unlikely.

If we analyze how, during four months starting from November, buyers are trying to build their attacks, it becomes clear that every subsequent attack grows weaker:

Pay attention, how aggressiveness and volumes are decreasing during each growth attempt. The impression is that sellers are simply exhausting buyers before a new fall wave.

This is another fact in favor of sellers.

Marginal positions of buyers decreased this week. However, at the moment of the test of the trend line, the buyers believed in the chance of breaking the triangle up and began to open their positions emotionally, after which it would be equally emotional to close them:

Sellers have been increasing their positions for the second week in succession. This happens on the growth of the coin. This testifies to their confidence that the fall will still continue:

According to the wave analysis, globally, the wave Y continues to form now. At the price of $4,360, the wave W = Y * 0.5. Now the price is under this level. And if buyers can not break through this price, then the global prospect of continuing the fall will be up to $2,650:

Therefore, until buyers aren’t acting with increased volumes and a positive mood, we will not believe in the future of the change in the annual fall trend and in the best case, expect the continuation of consolidation within the triangle maximum until the beginning of April.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 15th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 15th March 2019

Trading began at a price of $3,945 from 14 March, and the price closed at $3,948 at the end of the day. However, during the day, the price was moving in the range of 3.5%. The most interesting thing is that the main price movement took place within one hour, and if to be more accurate then during two 15-minute candles:

Buyers tried again to break through the black triangle, in which the price was traded from 9 March, after which they got a resolute response from sellers, also on the raised volume. After this battle, the price in the usual mode continued its movement without volumes. So, we can conclude that during the attempt to break through $3,988, sellers are activated and sharply lower the price.

However, sellers do not fully realize their counterattack and give a new chance to buyers. This behavior of sellers means that they are not ready to continue to fall either because of weakness or because they have not cleared the way for the buyer for the next fall.

What happened to the marginal positions of market participants?

The positions of buyers sharply decreased this very hour when sellers sharply responded to buyers in their attempt to grow:

Most likely, the market stop-loss of buyers who were inserted below the low trend line of the triangle, and since the market is now without volumes, sellers did not need much effort to provoke this situation.

Seller margin positions also decreased in the hour of greatest activity on 14 March but after this situation, sellers began to increase their positions. Now the position of sellers is in the triangle from 9 March.

Globally, after buyers attempted to break through and fix over $3,988, sellers lowered the price below this level and are still undergoing consolidation under the level. All attempts by buyers to change the situation are not successful yet. In our opinion, every flawed buyer’s breakdown shows their weakness and if buyers cannot hold themselves above the $3,988 level after several attempts, sellers will continue their sharp fall as a first step to $3,870.

If buyers will be able to fix themselves above $3,988, the next target price zone is $4,200–4,300. As we wrote in the previous analyses, for us, this price zone is considered critical, since sellers protect it reliably from November 2018. Yesterday’s hourly activity of market participants, on a daily timeframe, is not even noticeable and did not bring any clarity on the market, except for emotions.

What will be next? If you take a closer look at the triangle in which the price is traded from November, one can observe that the low trend line can be drawn in a different way. In this case, the price stayed outside the triangle for about 10 days, starting from 28 January but turned sharply into the triangle on 8 February, and buyers are already protecting this line for the third time. In this case, this consolidation can be delayed by the beginning of April, after which there will be a powerful and sharp exit from the triangle and, in our opinion, down.

Therefore, it should not be a long period to enjoy the consolidation. We will discuss global targets and scenarios of the price movement in the weekly market analysis.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 12th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 12th March 2019

Buyers were still unable to fix above $4,000 and to try and satisfy the price zone of $4,200–4,300. Since 6 March, the price stopped at around $4,000, and all attempts to break through and fix over this price were sluggish and with small volumes. We would like to see a sure breakthrough of this price and keeping it on increased volumes to prove that buyers have the power to keep the price up and continue to grow. However, since yesterday, buyers have not particularly been trying to counteract sellers with their increasing volumes:

As far back as 8 March was a signal that buyers did not have enough strength and a desire to keep the price. After many growth candles on a 4-hour timeframe, starting from 5 March, sellers were able to lower the price by 4% with the help of one candle. It was the first signal of weakness.

The margin positions of buyers continue to close. On a daily timeframe, it is clear that now buyer positions have reached the low trend line, which runs from September 2017, and there is a high probability that we will see a rebound from this trend line:

However, sellers also do not look sufficiently confident. The positions of sellers increased all the time when the price was around $4,000. However, at the moment, the position has ceased to increase and, in our opinion, the lower the price will be, the more closed positions will happen. Sellers will fix profits from the short-term trend:

Proceeding from this, the market continues consolidation in the range of $3,770–4,000, and now we are reflected from the upper limit of consolidation and intend to test the bottom. Since this consolidation arose after a sharp fall from 24 February and buyers could not fix above $4,000 for three weeks, we continue to think that the initiative and advantage are on the side of sellers and we believe that this consolidation is more likely to go down with the first stop of $3,670–3,700 and the final $3,500–3,550.

All buyers attempts to grow can be placed in the price channel. Now sellers are trying to fix below this channel and finally break the short-term growth:

The 4-hour chart shows that after breaking through the low trend line of the channel, buyers are not particularly trying to get the price back.

According to the wave analysis, now the formation ends after the fall from 24 February (wave b). Therefore, we expect another wave of fall (wave c), which at the price of $3,550 will be equal to the wave a:

Of course, the current rollback can continue and buyers will renew movement in their channel, but by analyzing the volumes and candles of buyers, we expect the continuation of the fall with the ultimate goal of $3,500–3,550, where we will analyze probable prospects.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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Bitcoin Market Analysis: 10th March 2019

Today, another week of trading ends, and we want to analyze what happened on the market during this period. However, we want to start with 27 January 2018. On this day, sellers were able to update a local minimum for the last time, after which buyers organized support in the form of a trend line that was kept until November 2018. All this time, buyers relied on a trend change, but the volumes of trading each day reduced this chance. What is happening now? After a sharp fall from USD 6000 to USD 3200, the price for the past 4 months is consolidated into a triangle and the volumes are even less than a year ago, when the price also consolidated for almost a year:

Despite the attractive price, buyers behave themselves very passively. This can be seen if you analyze the two previous attacks by buyers. We think you remember how the growth from 17 December 2018 shown promise and how aggressive it looked. Compare it with the following buyers attack:

Both the volumes and the look of the candles say that each subsequent attack is more difficult for buyers. And the current growth without volumes can end as unpleasant as on 24 February:

Therefore, despite attempts to grow from buyers, we still expect a fall to the price zone of USD 3500 – USD 4500, at least in order to see if there are active buyers who are ready to keep the price when real volumes on the market will appear.

Marginal positions of buyers for the third week are closed, while the price is trying to grow:

Sellers are trying to increase their positions, especially on the weak growth without volumes:

Despite the small volumes and the systematic closing of marginal positions, the rate of fear and greed is rather high (55).

Another unpleasant fact is a weak rollback after the fall from November 2018. Buyers corrected this fall by 23.6% and are currently lagging behind.

If buyers cannot break through USD 4200 – USD 4300, then the new wave of the fall will not be weaker than in November 2018.

Looking at the current situation concerning volumes, the most positive scenario for us is a test of USD 4600.

Even after such growth, we expect a new attempt by sellers to continue falling. However, taking into consideration the nature of the fall from November 2018, there is a high probability of continuing trade within the triangle. Therefore, we expect the critical points (USD 3500 – USD 3550 and USD 4200 – USD 4300) and will make a decision only in these price zones. At such small volumes, when the daily volume reaches 10,000 BTC (once it was the volume in one hour with a bullish trend), it is very difficult to build forecasts. We continue to wish you patience and endurance not to enter into risky deals and hope that the next week will be interesting and active.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Charts: TradingView

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 8th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 8th March 2019

After an unsuccessful attempt by sellers to break through $3,765 and fix below the price zone of $3,830–3,860, buyers could drastically change the situation. We wrote about similar fears in the previous analysis, as the breakthrough of the price zone of $3,830–3,860 took place on small volumes. This is especially noticeable if compared with the volumes on 24 February, when the first attempt to break through this price zone was established:

Also, buyers managed to break through the local falling trend, which began on 28 February and now for 3 days, the price is traded below $4,000.

On the one hand, buyers have shown a desire for growth, but we do not like some facts:

  1. At the moment, there was no attempt to break through $4,000 in large volumes. Buyers are not trying to attack and just stopped in front of this level:

  1. Marginal buyers positions are not increasing. The mood of buyers looks rather passive:

  1. Despite the low volumes and the sluggishness of buyers, the index of fear and greed is quite high. This is often the case in potential market turning points.

  1. On a daily timeframe, it looks like a consolidation of at least $3,765–4,000 will continue.

In any case, the critical point from which we would take trading decisions is higher — it’s a price zone of $4,200–4,300. Sellers are already protecting this price zone four times and their volumes are increasing.

According to the wave analysis, starting from 18 December, the price movement consists of three waves. Therefore, we expect the third final wave of the fall, which should satisfy the lower trend line of the triangle, in which the price moves from 18 December:

Now buyers have a rollback after falling by 38.2%. If buyers can break through $4,000, then the next stop is $4,080, from which the fall may start:

Therefore, our forecast does not change and we continue to expect a fall in the price with the ultimate target of $3,500–3,560. We still do not like the passivity of buyers, and in the weekly analysis, we will show all the factors that make us worry.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News

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BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 5th March 2019

BitcoinNews.com Bitcoin Market Analysis 5th March 2019

Yesterday, the rest of the market participants ended their run and sellers began to be active. The level of $3,820 was broken through but there is some concern regarding how this was achieved.

Pay attention to the volumes, after which the price bounced from the level of $3,820 on 24 February. Yesterday’s  volumes were increased relative to the previous consolidation, but they are too small for a certain continuation of the fall:

So far, the price is consolidated at a broken level of $3,820 and it gives a certain advantage to sellers. If you line a price movement channel from 24 February, then now the price is on the middle line of the channel and there is a prospect of continuation for the fall to $3,650–3,700:

In any case, for growth, buyers need to break through the upper trend line of this channel. During the past week, buyers did not succeed. Therefore, as long as the price is below $3,900, we believe that it is more likely to continue to fall.

Marginal buyers positions have ceased to close actively from 28 February and all this time have remained in consolidation: