Category Archives: bitcoin futures

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Bakkt Re-Affirms Imminent Physical Bitcoin Futures

It’s been about two months since the Bakkt cryptocurrency exchange was announced by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), along with the groundbreaking announcement that it would offer the first officially licensed and regulated physical Bitcoin futures in the United States.

Bakkt has re-affirmed that these physical Bitcoin futures are on the way as of 25 September 2018, and everything appears on track for them to launch in November 2018, little over a month from now. The exchange is saying that physical Bitcoin futures will be available in GBP and EUR in addition to USD.

Our first contracts will be physically delivered Bitcoin futures contracts versus fiat currencies, including USD, GBP and EUR. For example, buying one USD/BTC futures contract will result in daily delivery of one Bitcoin into the customer’s account.

— Bakkt (@Bakkt) September 25, 2018

Currently, the only Bitcoin futures available are cash-backed and cash-settled futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). Since these Bitcoin futures in Chicago are entirely backed by cash and settled for cash they can be considered paper Bitcoins. Investors purchasing paper Bitcoins in Chicago do not increase spot market demand and in fact, divert money away from Bitcoin spot markets long term.

Additionally, shorting Bitcoin futures in Chicago probably leads to market manipulation that causes Bitcoin’s price to go down, particularly around the time monthly futures contracts expire. It appears traders could be manipulating Bitcoin spot markets to crash to increase short sale profits from future contracts.

The Bitcoin futures that will probably be launched by Bakkt in November 2018 will be the first physical Bitcoin futures. They will be settled for actual Bitcoins on a daily basis, meaning an investor who buys Bitcoin future contracts on Bakkt will directly receive Bitcoins into their accounts on the same day when contracts settle. This means that physical Bitcoin futures contracts on Bakkt will directly increase spot demand for Bitcoin and, therefore, increase global Bitcoin price.

Effectively, the physical Bitcoin futures contracts on Bakkt will allow traders and investors to buy Bitcoin in a safe and regulated way, ideal for institutional investors. It is likely that the physical Bitcoin futures contracts on Bakkt will be available on all major stock trading platforms as well, which could pave the way for a major Bitcoin rally.

 

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Bitcoin Price Analysis, 25th May 2018: BTC/USD Met With Resistance Below $7500

Bitcoin appears to be coming under a bear market with signals indicating dramatic shifts in the sentiment of traders. Prices keep being in a downward spiral now with volumes also coming down.

The Day’s Signals

  1. Bitcoin prices fell from the day’s peak at USD 7,700 price levels with a drop down to USD 7,300 levels earlier today.
  2. While a recovery was realized above USD 7,500 prices, a selloff had traders taking consideration at USD 7,400 levels.
  3. Selling pressure now seems to be forming a resistance level below USD 7,500.

bitcoin gdax-btcusd-May-25-2018-23-58-58

GDAX BTC/USD charts are indicating the shattering of support levels with today’s downward spike. While markets did recover, the downtrend keeps prices from rising. Through more recent hours, a fall further down to USD 7,300 levels keeps seeming more plausible. It’s obvious that consideration after the recovery didn’t manage to last too long. Traders succumbed to a bearish breakout with the downward spiral even continuing after it. It’d be safe to assume that resistance levels might be starting to form below USD 7,500 levels with the markets even being vulnerable to further price falls as volumes remain low.

Bitcoin okcoin-btcusd-weekly-futures-May-25-2018-23-59-7

OKEX BTC/USD charts showcase that futures traders are continuing to support closely mirroring spot prices. There hasn’t been much space for a difference between the two markets with so much uncertainty around. Traders in markets for bitcoin futures have surely gotten wind of the worsening market sentiment that’s driven by uncertainty. With trading volumes continuing to go down from being already low in previous trading sessions, not much confidence can be placed in markets.

All in all, traders seem to be preparing for even worse outcomes in spite of the already worsening conditions experienced in bitcoin markets. Volumes kept going down in spite of already being low in previous trading sessions. It is such signals that lead traders to exercise more caution and ultimately markets end up with even thinner support. With new lows reached through yet another day, indicating that there’s no positive sign showing that the downtrend might be close to an end.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis, 18th May 2018: BTC/USD Recovers From Sub $8,000 Slump

The day’s trading session was followed by notable volatility with bitcoin price falling to a low of 7,950 levels. However, the breach below USD 8,000 did not last long as prices recovered briefly. In the more recent hours, markets keep trading around USD 8,200 levels following a recovery.

The Day’s Signals

  1. A major selloff caused prices to go from USD 8,200 levels to hovering above USD 8,000.
  2. The followup to the downward spike included yet another selloff that this time caused a breach below 8,000.
  3. Interestingly enough, the breach appears to have kickstarted a wave of buying pressure. Such trend is not yet showing any signs of longevity though.

bitcoin gdax-btcusd-May-19-2018-6-21-20

GDAX BTC/USD charts are indicating that support for USD 8,000 might be underlying. The fact that a breach was observed today wouldn’t normally bring confidence, but the market’s reaction begs otherwise. Traders shouldn’t be too quick to judge of course, as the day’s trading volumes have gone down in comparison to the last few days. Big orders causing price spikes appear to be a driving force in today’s trading session. The market’s response to the spike that pushed prices to a breach certainly does showcase some support though. The market taking consideration on the recovered USD 8,200 brings on a more positive outlook in the following of a breach.

bitcoin okcoin-btcusd-biweekly-futures-May-19-2018-6-27-23

OKEX BTC/USD weekly futures showcase a tendency of futures traders to exaggerate selling pressure to an extent, which becomes more apparent at the time of the day when greater selling pressure was observed. Futures markets did, however, break out of this sentiment with prices moving up again. The difference in futures prices and markets rates grew to a bigger difference with futures maintaining higher prices.

In summary, today’s response to the sizable downward spike that was experienced was notably positive. It’s worth pointing out that markets appear to be on an overall downtrend over the span of this week. With that in mind, support for a recovery after a breach might showcase that underlying support could be holding up for USD 8,000 levels. Of course, a day with decreased volumes would not set a sentiment of support in stone. For that reason, the sustainability of the recovery remains to be seen.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis, 16th May 2018: Bitcoin Markets Stagnant Above $8,000

Bitcoin markets appear to have a hard time finding sustainable support above USD 8,500 levels. Even after the bullish breakout experienced only a couple of days ago, markets are again experiencing a dip, this time reaching low levels of USD 8,100.

The day’s signals

  1. Large sell0ffs crashed Bitcoin prices down from USD 8,500 levels where BTC/USD was at in the earlier hours of the trading session.
  2. The crash appears to be a continuation of the downward trend. This trend appeared following Bitcoin markets reaching a top above USD 8,800.
  3. Volatility still appears to be in play but this time around, leaning towards overall bearish sentiment.

bitcoin gdax-btcusd-May-17-2018-6-37-45

GDAX BTC/USD charts are showcasing the market’s mood through a couple of interesting patterns. The first is an apparent market disdain when it comes to following up on positive price movements. The major crash for the day caused prices to drop from USD 8,500 levels down to USD 8,100 levels. With markets taking consideration for a few hours, traders achieved a recovery reaching slightly below USD 8,400 levels. Some brief consideration ensued and then yet another dip, this time with prices reaching a low at USD 8,200 price levels. From there on, prices have been pressured against reaching USD 8,400 levels again.

bitcoin okcoin-btcusd-quarterly-futures-May-17-2018-6-37-48

OKEX BTC/USD weekly futures still appear to be maintaining some positivity. Futures traders are keeping up the positive difference between futures rates and live market prices. That’s in continuation to the recently reached peak. A breach in the now sideways trailing prices could potentially limit that positive difference substantially. The recent hours where volumes have gone down leave markets especially vulnerable to another breakout that could end up being negative.

All in all, traders are certainly more cautious after the day’s volatility proved support hasn’t come on to back prices above USD 8,500.  Interestingly enough though, while volumes have gone down, prices are now managing to rise under this setting. However, support for even the current levels proved to be unreliable throughout the day. The way Bitcoin markets are playing out, there’s no wonder traders appear skeptical in this moment.

 

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