Monthly Archives: April 2019

Study Says Lone “Committed Actor” Responsible for April Bitcoin Surge

Study Says Lone

Fresh research by crypto analytics firm CoinMetrics has added to speculation that the sudden hike in Bitcoin price in early April, that prompted the current revival of the cryptocurrency market, is all down to the actions of a single trader.

According to the company, among the many theories surrounding the event, one of the most plausible ones was that of a single entity that placed an order for about USD 100 million worth of Bitcoin across several exchanges. It said that “a single committed actor”.

It then proceeded to provide evidence to back up its theory by posting a series of Tweets on its official Twitter account, beginning with the assertion that there was no news of significant impact during the one hour of the event, a time that was also normally very low in trading volume.

On April 2, 2019, Bitcoin’s price increased from roughly $4,200 to $5,000 in a span of one hour. There was no impactful news released during this time.

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

It observed that most of the volume happened on HitBTC exchange on the BTC/USDT market. It also, however, does not rule out HitBTC’s action could have been due to wash trading. The large trading amounts were then observed on Coinbase, followed by Bitfinex. All three are among the world’s most active exchanges for Bitcoin.

It provides several charts to support their claim:

The large price movement on April 2, 2019 occurred during the window of lowest global liquidity. It began at 04:30 UTC and lasted until 05:30 UTC. This time may have been deliberately chosen so that a committed actor could maximize price impact when trading. pic.twitter.com/vktxpGBwlQ

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

A video showing the full history across all exchanges also shows a remarkably similar pattern happening on all three platforms:

Here’s a fuller history of those three exchanges pic.twitter.com/j3KJxtr60h

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

CoinMetrics concluded that a bull run could very well be on the cards, but that it was too early to say if a rally was already underway.

 

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John McAfee Claims $1 Million Bitcoin Prediction Based on Math

John McAfee Claims  Million Bitcoin Prediction Based on Math

John McAfee’s explanation for his USD 1 million Bitcoin price by the end of 2020 is all down to mathematics, according to the high flying tech mogul.

A recent McAfee Tweet offering to the market suggested that it would be “mathematically impossible” that one BTC will be less than USD 1 million “by the end of 2020”.

A brave claim worth investigating. Assuming Bitcoin remains around it current price for the next 24 hours, a good place to start from, now sitting at USD 5,277, it needs launch on a head-spinning lift off increasing by 20,000% in order to reach McAfee’s 2020 USD 1 million target. The leap in 2017, regarded by many as highly unexpected and unrepeatable saw a 20-times leap in the value of the flagship coin before it just as rapidly crashed to earth in 2018.

It is worth noting McAfee’s last big prediction of USD 500,000 by the end of 2020 made in 2017 is still current, so he does have the advantage of a fallback position should he wish to hedge his bets as the end of next year approaches, assuming Bitcoin is flying into the stratosphere.

McAfee’s math told him that his early prediction priced Bitcoin at USD 5,000 by the end of 2017, and it to be fair it had already doubled that by December to USD 10,000. A simple annual doubling up process, however, would not have taken Bitcoin to his original USD 500,000 prediction by the end of 2020; in fact, a mathematical total based on doubling would be closer to USD 80,000, but still no mean feat, and great for those BTC holders buying in 2017. McAfee was clearly hoping for a 20-times annual leap over the span over four years to get to his mammoth target.

Wences Casares, CEO of Xapo and a director at PayPal, is going for Bitcoin reaching USD 1 million in the next 7 to 10 years, but still gives McAfee’s claims a hint of a chance. Casares uses his own equation by multiplying the total of Bitcoin Hodlers with USD 7,000 and given there are 3 billion owners globally, then the currency could be worth USD 1 million with a fixed BTC supply of 20 million units.

No stranger to controversy, McAfee’s latest media offering has suggested that he is not ready to release the identity of Bitcoin’s founder yet, but has revealed:

“It is NOT the CIA nor any agency of any world government. It IS a collection of people, but the white paper was written by one man, who currently resides in the US.”

 

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Bakkt Gets Creative with NY Crypto License

Bakkt Gets Creative with NY Crypto License

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is attempting to facilitate the launch of its delayed Bakkt platform by obtaining a New York cryptocurrency license to seemingly bring about a more favorable outcome, according to Bloomberg’s report.

The much-lauded physically delivered Bitcoin futures platform – Bakkt – which is expected to further the adoption of Bitcoin to both institutions and retail investors, has been delayed for five months, with currently no date set for launch, as CEO Kelly Loeffler hinted:

“While we’re not yet able to provide a launch date, we’re making solid progress in bringing the first physical delivery price discovery contracts for Bitcoin to the .S, where price formation will occur in federally regulated, transparent markets.”

The delay has been for the most part due to custody concerns from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which considered the custody infrastructure currently in place to be inadequate. Moreover, the regulator’s rules require clearinghouses to deposit customer funds at a bank or trust company – none of which Bakkt is, according to the report. Although, the CFTC had earlier suggested Bakkt register as a trust company to circumnavigate the concern.

CFTC had granted Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) self-certification based on the fact that they settled their futures contract in cash, unlike in the case of Bakkt where settlements will be in Bitcoin, which raised the initial concerns of custody given the nature of asset theft in the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, the regulator alongside CME and CBOE agreed to significant enhancements to protect customers.

ICE hopes a New York crypto license will influence the regulator’s decision positively, given that the license grants the Bakkt platform permission from New York’s Department of Financial Services to hold tokens.

In the background, the Bakkt project continues to develop as it grows its workforce as well as acquire asset relevant to its development.

 

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